Sunny, with slight chance of overcapacity

Financial people tend to describe markets in meteorological terms, such as market "turbulence" or financial "tsunamis". These words vividly convey market conditions, so I would like to draw on further meteorological analogies to make my points.

For 2014, we expect a warming trend to continue. Yet there are bound to be pockets of cloudy and unstable weather.

The US economic map will be "clear with rising temperatures". Earlier this year, its growth momentum had moderated due to severe conditions, such as a decline in new orders and slow expansion in public spending. But on the back of greater fiscal certainty, easing of tightening measures and near completion of private sector deleveraging, the American economy is on track to achieve greater than expected growth. Official estimates indicate that the US economy will expand at 2.9 percent to 3.4 percent in 2014, which may well herald an early spring for its recovery.

Meanwhile, an EU reading shows clouds, but they are thinning out. The European Union embarked on a path of recovery in 2013, making headway in reform and integration of the eurozone. The positive momentum will continue into 2014, bolstered by stronger external demand, easing of fiscal tightening and growth in credit supply and demand.

Full-year growth is on track to reach 1 percent. Nevertheless, the recovery process is subject to how well the eurozone tackles below-target inflation and a relatively high level of unemployment.

Emerging economies present a mixed picture. There will be sunny patches as well as overcast ones, and isolated showers are possible. These economies will maintain growth momentum thanks to accelerated structural reforms and internal overhauls, which provides sustained driving force. Yet there will be challenges ahead, posed by outflow of capital, limited policy space for further stimulus and pockets of political instability. But we expect these problems to be temporary, just like a shower that may affect an area for only a short period.

China's economic map will be "mostly sunny and partly cloudy". The Chinese government has set the growth target for 2014 at 7.5 percent. Though slightly lower than in 2013, the growth rate still lies squarely within a reasonable range to ensure medium to rapid economic growth. In the meantime, the government has launched a set of measures to pursue steady growth, structural readjustment and further reform. These policy responses, along with promoting "a new type" of urbanization, will cultivate new growth drivers for the nation's economy.

As for the cloudy weather, that means there will be challenges, which will include local government debt, shadow banking, overcapacity and environmental pollution. The government is both determined to and capable of solving these issues, and we are confident that it will.

The sunny as well as cloudy spots on the map of the global economy present both opportunities and challenges ahead for investors.

First, in terms of market investments, the US Federal Reserve will continue to taper its asset purchases, which will drive prices of multiple assets to normal levels or below comparable historic levels. For global equity market, the prices already have returned to normal levels, and that means that unless companies achieve exceptional profits, they will not be growing as strongly as they did in the past two years. The bond market will face considerable downward pressure, with interest rates trending upward. As for key commodities, price levels will be suppressed due to improvement on the supply side.

Secondly, as global liquidity levels recover, many unconventional investors are migrating their capital into long-term assets, which is a trend that will continue to unfold. But as long-term investments in developing countries are deemed to be riskier, capital will tend to chase assets in developed markets, leaving an investment shortfall growing in developing ones.

Third, with economic recovery taking hold, protectionism will be emerging in developed countries.

The writer is chairman of the Supervisory Board of China Investment Corp. The view do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.