How good a government India has got

India has voted in a new government under new leader. The 10-year-old Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance government will be succeeded by the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance. Many in India see this as a victory for development and governance, which the BJP so vehemently used as its main campaign plank in the general election.

The BJP projected its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi (who could be sworn in as India's new head of government later this week) as a strong, decisive leader who, among other things, could revive India's economy and create enough jobs for the country's youths. Surprisingly, the voters bit the bait and voted to give the BJP-led NDA an overwhelming majority in parliament.

It's a different matter that reviving a country's economy and creating enough jobs for its youths don't depend on a leader or party alone. They depend on whether the fundamentals of the Indian economy are strong enough to spring back to fast-paced growth. They depend also on whether the country's development has touched (rather benefited) every layer of society - because an economy that has made the rich richer and the poor poorer cannot be sustainable in the long run.

But these facts seem to have been given the short shrift by the so-called economic (and media) pundits who declared the BJP the winner of the election much before the results were declared on May 16. They portrayed Modi, in the run-up to the election, as an omnipotent figure capable of transforming India's fate in the same way that he had changed the development paradigm of Gujarat, the province he governed for 13 years. Gujarat was projected by the Indian media as a model province, an el dorado where nothing could go wrong.

The pollsters, psephologists and media pundits projected Modi as a wizard whose magic wand had turned the province of Gujarat into what mainstream economists would refer to as the "promised land". All of a sudden, everyone started swearing by the "Gujarat model" of development.

Apart from deliberately forgetting the fact that Gujarat had always been one of the most prosperous Indian provinces, what the economists and media pundits also ignored is that despite its economic success, the province measures poorly on the human development index (HDI). In the UN Development Programme's inequality adjusted HDI (2011), Gujarat ranked ninth in education and 10th in health among 19 major Indian provinces. On gains in the HDI (1999-2008), Gujarat was 18th among 23 provinces. And in the first India State Hunger Index (2009) Gujarat was 13th out of 17 provinces.

On the environmental front, too, Gujarat doesn't fare any better. Three of India's 10 most polluted cities, according to the country's Central Pollution Control Board, are in Gujarat. Vapi, Ankaleshwar and Vatva are not only the three most polluted cities in India, but also the provincial government under Modi didn't take any action when environmental norms were openly violated in these and other cities in the province.

Nevertheless, the Indian voters, by and large (by and large, because the percentage of votes the BJP has got is just 31 percent of the total) have accepted Modi as a person who could change the economic and strategic fate of India. The question, however, is: Is Modi really a wizard? Or does he owe his larger than life image to the media and big business?

Modi has been accused of being complicit in the killings of more than 1,000 Muslims in the riots that rocked Gujarat in 2002. Besides, his alleged favorable disposition toward big business at the cost of farmers and small businesspeople is another contentious issue that does not suit a national leader.

Given these facts, what should the world, especially United States and China, two major global powers, expect from Modi as the new leader of India? The new government, at least to prove its worth to its supporters and the electorate in general, will have to take some steps to repair the Indian economy. But since the BJP is politically and economically disposed toward Washington, we can expect Modi to lean more toward the US than Russia (India's traditional ally).

And the fact that the BJP-led government is likely to focus on trade and investment promotion should be good news for India's major trade partners.

Using foreign policies to tide over domestic problems is not new in international relations - many countries do it, and India is no exception. This could very well be one purpose the BJP-led government could use the border dispute with China for. At least it could use it to drive a hard bargain - because it has to impress its supporters by trying to reduce the huge trade deficit with China.

But since the new Indian government's agenda is likely to be set by big business (as a possible quid pro quo for supporting Modi's candidature), trade may take precedence over geopolitics and even realpolitik. The new Indian government may not be as bad a news for its trade partners as it is for the Indian economy and society, especially the poor and the marginalized.

The author is a senior editor with China Daily. oprana@hotmail.com