Abe losing public's trust

High-handed policies to lift ban on collective self-defense and other rightists moves are undermining support for the ruling coalition

Japan's quasi-army has hired Haruka Shimazaki, a member of the well-known AKB48 all-girl pop group, to help with recruitment.

A sweetly smiling Shimazaki can be seen in TV commercials and online videos, featuring the slogan "You and Peace", that are trying to recruit young Japanese to the self-defense forces with the promise, "a job you won't find anywhere else".

The SDF recruitment posters are also visible in Tokyo's subway trains. Since July 1, Japan's Defense Ministry has mailed letters to high school students nationwide encouraging them to enlist.

"Coincidently", this year's recruitment drive began on the same day Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe allowed the forces to take part in missions outside their homeland.

The social media comments following this development reflect a wary, angry Japanese public, with many calling it "sinister".

The Japanese public was unhappy when Abe rammed through his secrecy bill, now they are even more concerned with his reinterpretation of Article 9 of the country's Constitution to allow collective self-defense.

The public support for the Abe administration is clearly waning. July opinion polls show the lowest approval ratings for the Abe Cabinet since it swept into office in December 2012.

A Yomiuri Shimbun poll found that support for the government had fallen to 48 percent, down 9 percentage points from June. This significant drop was the direct result of Abe's high-handed push for an expanded role for Japan's military. The prestigious University of Tokyo has turned down the defense ministry's invitation to undertake joint research on improving the C-2 transport aircraft - a plane developed solely by the ministry - on the grounds that it goes against the school's ban on military-related studies. The C-2 transport aircraft, as well as transport helicopters, are on the procurement list of Japan's air self-defense force, which plans to set up a new squadron to be deployed in Naha, Okinawa (close to China's Diaoyu Islands).

Some Japanese are so concerned about Abe's latest move, they are taking legal action. A lawsuit has been filed against the prime minister for the Cabinet's decision to lift the ban on the right to collective self-defense. The applicants have asked the local courts to rule that the reinterpretation is invalid.

Meanwhile, Mitsushige Yamanaka, the mayor of Matsusaka, a city in central Japan's Mie Prefecture, said he will soon establish a pacifist civic group, and he says he will call on other municipality heads, lawmakers and the general public to join his initiative.

"It's difficult for rank-and-filers to retrieve peace after mindless policymakers destroy it," he was quoted as saying. "It's vital to legally confirm (the Cabinet's decision) is unconstitutional."

Abe's constitutional reinterpretation still has some legal barriers to overcome, as Japan's parliament will need to revise a number of laws. But compared with his predecessors, Abe's situation is more conducive. The ruling coalition - the Liberal Democratic Party and its junior partner New Komeito - enjoys a comfortable majority in both houses of the parliament. This gives Abe the chance to have his own way, and he has already made use of this to bulldoze through many of his plans.

An overwhelming majority, or 97.5 percent, of the government-sponsored bills were passed into law during the last session of the parliament.

The next Upper House election will not be until July 2016, and Japan's opposition parties are weak and at present, irrelevant.

But it would be a mistake to think it will be all smooth sailing for the rest of Abe's tenure.

The governing coalition has burned its fingers, failing the first test of its policies on collective self-defense and nuclear energy.

In the July 13 gubernatorial election, voters in Shiga Prefecture chose Taizo Mikazuki, a former Lower House member from the Democratic Party of Japan, over Takashi Koyari, who was heavily backed by the LDP and New Komeito.

Japanese pundits said Mikazuki's win is likely to increase calls within the LDP to replace its Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, who was in charge of rallying support for Koyari. Other senior LDP officials originally thought the Shiga race would be a relatively easy victory for their candidate, with some polls in late June giving him a clear lead over Mikazuki.

The Shiga vote might be a harbinger of public distrust in the ruling parties and will have a ripple effect on the important gubernatorial elections in Fukushima and Okinawa prefectures this autumn.

Also, elections for Japan's city and prefectural assemblies are due in January 2015. The major turnaround in Japan's postwar defense-only policy will drive voters away from the ruling parties.

Abe's term as LDP president is up in September 2015 - although he is permitted to run for one more three-year term. However, rebels in Abe's own party might build up pressure on him.

Public disapproval cost Abe his first premiership in September 2007.

In parliamentary systems such as Japan's, local elections - not to mention internal party elections - can be as fateful to a prime minister as those for the Lower and Upper houses of the Diet.

For the Abe administration, storm clouds are already on the horizon.

The author is the Tokyo bureau chief of China Daily. caihong@chinadaily.com.cn