History can't be changed like Japan's statute

With Shinzo Abe commencing his third term as Japan's prime minister, the year of the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II will be pivotal.

To begin with, emboldened by the mandate in the Dec 14 election, Abe is likely to add more muscle to Japan's defense forces and build it into a full-fledged military.

Central to this task will be a reinterpretation of (or amendment to) Japan's pacifist Constitution. Article 9 of the Constitution says Japan chooses specifically not to exercise the right to collective self-defense.

But as soon as he was sworn in prime minister for the second time in 2012, Abe started moves to reinterpret Article 9. On Wednesday, after the first Cabinet meeting of his third term, Abe addressed a press conference in Tokyo explaining his New Year's resolution, which in essence is revision of the Constitution.

The year 2015 is expected to be one of debates in Japan and the rest of the world over the Abe administration's political and strategic moves. But, going by opinion polls, the majority of Japanese people remain opposed to any early amendment to (or reinterpretation of) the Constitution.

China and the Republic of Korea raised objections against the Abe administration's move in July after the Japanese Cabinet announced the Constitution would be read in a new light. But Abe has ignored its neighbors' objections and protests at home.

The Liberal Democratic Party has been in power in Japan for all but a few of the past 60 years. Now, with a two-thirds majority in the Lower House and control of the Upper House, the LDP, along with its junior coalition partner Komeito, is closer than before to its goal of pushing for new legislation on the Constitution. And it is expected to introduce such legislation in 2015.

More than 54 percent of the respondents to a Kyodo news agency poll earlier this month said the government should deliberate further before moving such a bill in the legislature.

But Abe is undeterred. As he said on Wednesday, "we will make great efforts to seek understanding from citizens" over the reinterpretation of the Constitution.

Abe is out to reinterpret not only the Constitution but also Japan's wartime history and thereby increasing tensions in East Asia.

To make matters worse, the Abe administration is planning to hold a major ceremony at Yasukuni Shrine, which honors 14 Class-A war criminals among others, on Aug 15, 70 years to the day when Japan surrendered in World War II. Besides, more than 100 lawmakers have visited the Yasukuni this year, insulting the memories of Japan's wartime victims in neighboring countries and regions.

To mitigate the impact of the Yasukuni visits on Japan's victims, Abe plans to deliver a statement on Japan's wartime history. But those expecting Abe to apologize for Japan's wartime crimes should now hold their breath, for his administration has already tried to defy the 1995 Murayama Statement (issued by then Japanese prime minister Tomiichi Murayama) which acknowledged Japan's atrocities.

At best Abe could use the opportunity to further highlight Japanese people's sufferings because of the two atomic bombs. He could also emphasize "proactive pacifism", a euphemism for building a full-fledged military, and manufacturing and exporting weapons.

Abe wants to remain prime minister until the next election, which is four years away. But since his term as LDP chief expires in September, he will need the support of right-wing forces in the party to be re-elected and secure another three years at the helm. And he will pamper them to get it.

Abe will deliver a policy speech in the Diet (parliament) in January, which is likely to set the tone of his statements and moves during the rest of 2015, including the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.

Although Abe looks like using his moves in the past two years as a template for the future, he should know that history cannot be denied or reinterpreted like a constitution.

The author is a journalist with China Daily. zhangyunbi@chinadaily.com.cn