China, US should eye the larger picture

One, if not the most, critical factor in understanding the current state of the China-US relationship and where it is heading is the ability to see the larger picture. The relationship has been an intrinsically complex one from the very beginning and it is even more so in this time of major change. It presents both opportunities and challenges, featuring contradictory trends and competing interests.

As far as the global political structure or strategic order is concerned, the international system with the United States at the center is already unraveling, even though it remains the sole superpower. It is anyone's guess at the moment what the future order will look like. Some say it will be a multipolar world or a nonpolar world, while others believe that with China on track to become a new superpower, a bipolar world is on the horizon.

People tend to believe that since China became the world's second-largest economy, the competition between the United States, an established power, and China, a rising power, has grown fierce. But opinion is divided as to where this competition will lead. By definition, a rising power is on the up, whereas an established power tries to avoid a decline. In this sense, China apparently has more reason for confidence and optimism. But although the US is in a relative decline, it is still way ahead of China in terms of strength and influence.

Although the world is changing, the current international system is still dominated by the US. The nature of the shift from a US-centric post-Cold War unipolar order to a multipolar one is a process of decentralization. Needless to say, despite its effect on other countries, the biggest impact of that shift will be upon the US. For China, the shift is generally in its favor. The US has a much bigger stake in the unipolar system.

Throughout the decades since the two countries resumed engagement, the relationship between China and the US has been moving in the right direction on the whole, even though their aims do not always align. Admittedly, there have been frictions, tensions and even clashes, but the two countries are neither on a collision course nor moving in opposite directions. And it is the overall direction that matters most in the China-US relationship.

With the tectonic shift in international relations, structural tensions and strategic competition between the two countries are on the rise, raising uncertainty about the direction of relationship. A particular source of concern is the risk of confrontation caused by misjudgment following unexpected incidents. The possibility of a head-on collision could thus become very real.

As a matter of fact, the ongoing debates about the so-called inevitability of rivalry between a rising power and an established power or the emergence of a new Cold War all boil down to one question: Will there be a fundamental shift in the future direction of China-US relations?

To answer that question, China needs to answer the following questions first: How should it perceive the world? As it grows in strength and forges closer ties with the world, what kind of relations and global order does it desire? What does it want to achieve with the US?

What China wants is primarily determined by what the world looks like to China and how it would like it to look in the future. Some argue that China's goal is to become a major power with global preeminence. Others argue it is better for China to focus on East Asia alone and be content with being the leader of the region - a wise decision weighing its strength and bearing in mind what happened to empires that came before the US. There are even those who urge China to be more ambitious and replace the US. But that raises the question of how can China achieve that? Does China have the capability? When should that happen? In what way can it happen? Most people in China have not considered these questions.

Instead of taking over the US' pole position in the world, China can also choose to live in peace with the US. Ideally, the gap between the two countries will gradually shrink and eventually they will get along with each other in a multipolar world. But before we ever reach that day, we still need to ask ourselves: What exactly does living in peace with the US mean for us? What is the best path to achieve that end? Can China and the US live together peacefully in Asia? As big as these questions may be, they hold the key to keeping the China-US relationship on the right track into the future. This is the larger picture, and it explains why the Chinese leadership has proposed the concept of a new model for a major-country relationship.

Courtesy: chinausfocus.com

The author is the former president of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.