Top leaders warn against trade war

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop warned on Monday of a disastrous outcome if a trade war breaks out between the United States and China.

Bishop said China and the US cannot afford to wage a trade war. "I believe that both sides have too much at stake for there to be a trade war," she told Bloomberg News in Singapore, as quoted in a story by the Australia Associated Press.

"The United States has issues with China, China has issues with the United States, but I believe they can be resolved by high level consultation and discussion and I hope that we see that," she said.

Zhong Shan, China's new minister of commerce, said last Saturday that Sino-US economic and trade cooperation is very much in the interest of both countries. "A trade war does not meet the fundamental interests of the two countries, neither the two peoples. It will be a disaster for the global economy," he told a press conference in Beijing.

Observers have warned that a US trade war with China is a trade war with Asia, due to the close interdependence of the Asian economies, where China is often a country's top trade partner.

Bob Carr, Bishop's predecessor, made similar comments last week. He told Sky News on March 7 that it was imperative Australian diplomacy efforts be directed toward persuading the Trump administration out of "anything that reeks of a trade war with China".

"This is the touchstone, this is the key issue: trade. And it's one where Australia has a big stake. If Trump accepts the advice of extremists and mavericks, he's appointed to trade positions then there will be an attempt to block Chinese imports," Carr said.

"That is going to lower the rate of Chinese economic growth, it's going to affect all Asian economies and it's most certainly going to affect the Australian economy," Carr added.

China is Australia's top trade partner, absorbing a third of Australia's exports. Japan and the US are respectively Australia's No 2 and No 3 trade partners.

Carr did not name "the extremists and mavericks" he was referring to. Experts have expressed concerns over the protectionist sentiments expressed by Trump's new director of the National Trade Council Peter Navarro and his nominee for US trade representative, Robert Lighthizer.

During the presidential campaign, Trump threatened high tariffs on Chinese exports and to name China a currency manipulator, but he has since softened his tone on those issues.

David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointed out the inconsistent views by Trump's economic and trade officials. "Usually that means within a year, some start winning, some start losing, some leave probably," he told China Daily.

"I do think if the Trump administration does any major protectionist measures against China, I am sure that China will retaliate in a major way. And that will be quite bad for our two economies," he said. "I think a real trade war is unlikely."

chenweihua@chinadailyusa.com