Poll drubbing could hit Abe party hard

Experts: Public dissatisfied with the ruling party and its policies

TOKYO - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's historic drubbing at the hands of the newly formed Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First party) in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election on Sunday has severely damaged the very foundation of the LDP, with its future course and leadership now uncertain, analysts said.

The LDP's worst defeat in the history of the Tokyo election has triggered a lot of soul-searching within the ruling camp.

With Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike's Tomin First no Kai now dominating the assembly with 49 of its 127 seats, and 79 seats with its allies, the election has profound implications stemming far beyond just local politics, pundits said.

"The public's overwhelming support for Koike and her new party is not only a testament to their faith in the governor, but it is also a very clear message sent to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the LDP that they are dissatisfied with the way the party has been handling a number of contentious matters recently," said Asian affairs commentator Kaoru Imori.

"The LDP and senior officials have been embroiled in a number of scandals recently and the public feel they have not fully accounted for themselves and used their majority to simply push their own agenda. What we've seen in this election, is the public is not as passive as perhaps it used to be in sticking with the status quo," he said.

Autocratic style

He went on to explain that as much as the public were voting for Koike, they were also voting against the LDP for its autocratic style of "single party-esque" politics and its tendency to "force its issues" without enough parliamentary deliberation with opposition parties or suitable explanations to the public.

Experts have also been quick to highlight the fact that the LDP's defeat was so damaging for the party that Hakubun Shimomura, who heads the party's Tokyo chapter, had little choice but to step down from the post to take responsibility for the historic defeat.

Equally, the future course of the LDP is now in question, based on Sunday's outcome, as the Tokyo elections are often a barometer for the future of national politics, and, while Tomin First no Kai may not be entering national politics immediately, some pundits believe it won't be long until the LDP has to contend with the new party on a national level.

Along with the possibility of a new opposition party or opposition coalition with some political teeth in the Diet in the future, to rein in the LDP, in the nearer term the election loss and the implications ahead have shaken the very core of the ruling party, they said.

"The current course of the LDP in light of the election loss and recent scandals and gaffe's by its lawmakers may well impact its leadership election in September next year, as well as the next lower house election to be held by December 2018," Imori said.

"Before the election, the course of the LDP was all very predictable as the party was solid. This is no longer the case," he said.

"And also now in doubt under such a frail LDP, is Abe's sole drive to amend the constitution, and we can expect to hear more from Shigeru Ishiba (a former defense minister and LDP heavyweight), who disagrees with Abe about the way in which the constitution should be changed and is, in fact, Abe's biggest potential rival for the LDP's leadership," Imori said.

Xinhua