Splits could put brakes on Brexit

Both sides voice uncertainty as negotiations slow to a crawl

LONDON - Lucy Harris thinks Britain's decision to leave the European Union is a dream come true. Nick Hopkinson thinks it's a nightmare.

The two Britons - a "leave" supporter and a "remainer" - represent the great divide in a country that stepped into the unknown just over a year ago, when British voters decided by 52 percent to 48 percent to end more than four decades of EU membership.

They are also as uncertain as the rest of the country about what Brexit will look like, and even when it will happen. Since the shock referendum result, work on negotiating the divorce from the EU has slowed to a crawl as the scale and complexity of the challenge becomes clearer.

Harris, founder of the pro-Brexit group Leavers of London, says she is hopeful, rather than confident, that Britain will really cut its ties with the EU.

"If we haven't finalized it, then anything's still up for grabs," she said. "Everything is still to play for."

She's not the only Brexiteer, as those who support leaving the EU are called, to be concerned. After an election last month clipped the wings of Britain's Conservative government, remainers are gaining in confidence.

"Since the general election I've been more optimistic that at least we're headed toward a soft Brexit, and hopefully we can reverse Brexit altogether," said Hopkinson, chairman of pro-EU group London4Europe. "Obviously the government is toughing it out, showing a brave face. But I think its brittle attitude toward Brexit will break and snap."

Many on both sides of the divide had assumed the picture would be clearer by now. But the road to Brexit has not run smoothly.

First the British government lost a Supreme Court battle over whether a vote in Parliament was needed to begin the Brexit process. Once the vote was held, and won, Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative government officially triggered the two-year countdown to exit, starting a race to untangle four decades of intertwined laws and regulations by March 2019.

Then, May called an early election in a bid to strengthen her hand in EU negotiations. Instead, voters stripped May's Conservatives of their parliamentary majority, severely denting May's authority and her ability to hold together a party split between its pro-and anti-EU wings.

The result is a disunited British government and an increasingly impatient EU, which has slammed British proposals so far as vague and inadequate.

EU officials insist there can be no discussion of a future trade deal with Britain until "sufficient progress" has been made on citizens' rights, the exit bill and the status of the Irish border.

"We don't seem to be much further on now than we were just after the referendum," said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. "I'm not sure anybody knows just how this is going to go. I'm not sure the government has got its negotiating goals sorted. I'm not sure the EU really knows what (Britain's goals) are either.

"I think we are going to find it very, very hard to meet this two-year deadline before we crash out."

Associated Press