西班牙巴利亞多利德大學的科學家日前發表研究報告稱，一顆小行星可能會在2182年撞擊地球，如果不盡快采取措施改變其運行軌跡的話，它將對地球造成毀滅性的破壞并導致大范圍的物種滅絕。巴利亞多利德大學科學家們利用數學模型進行計算后發現，這顆名為1999RQ36的小行星在2200年以前撞擊地球的概率為1/1000，而且最可能發生的時間是2182年9月24日。科學家們表示，雖然這一撞擊概率看上去很小，但它與小行星阿波菲斯撞擊地球的概率相比可大多了。目前，科學家普遍認為阿波菲斯在2036年撞擊地球的概率為25萬分之一。他們還指出，任何想要迫使該小行星轉變運行軌跡以拯救地球的嘗試都必須提前至少100年進行，如果到2080年以后才開始采取行動的話，任何努力都將是徒勞。

A giant asteroid called 1999 RQ36 may crash into Earth on September 24 2182, scientists believe.

A giant asteroid called 1999 RQ36 may crash into Earth on September 24 2182, scientists believe.

A team of experts, including some working for NASA, believes the 612-yards-wide object has a one-in-a-thousand chance of an impact 172 years from now.

The odds of a crash are considerably shorter than those given for the asteroid Apophis, which has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036.

A report in the solar system journal, Icarus, said the odds of an earlier impact were more remote but increased by 2080 when its orbit will bring it swinging back towards Earth.

Maria Eugenia Sansaturio from the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain, who co-led the research, told Universe Today that knowledge of the risk posed by the asteroid "may help design in advance mechanisms aimed at deviating the asteroid's path."

It was first discovered in 1999 and is more than twice the size of Apophis. If it were to hit it is likely to cause widespread devastation and possible mass extinction.

Sansaturio added: "The consequence … is not just the likelihood of a comparatively large impact, but also that a realistic deflection procedure, or path deviation could only be made before the impact in 2080, and more easily, before 2060.2

Previous asteroid impacts are thought to have created massive craters and tsunamis and have even been blamed for the extinction of the dinosaurs.

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(Agencies)

（中國日報網英語點津 Helen 編輯）