Yue Songdong

I. Outlook on population growth in 2004

According to experts, China’s population is estimated to surpass 1.3 billion and reach 1.3002 billion in 2004, registering a natural growth rate of 6 ‰. China will continue its population growth pattern characterized by low birth rate, low death rate and low natural growth rate. Since the year 2004, as a leap year, is one day longer than last year, more babies will be born. More than 10 million rural residents are expected to migrate to urban areas in 2004. The proportion of children in the total population continues to drop and their number is expected to reach 275 million. More male infants will be born than female ones in 2004, continuing a long-lasting trend. People above the age of 65 will rise up to 100 million and the total number of people need to be supported is dwindling.

In 2004, China is confronted with the following outstanding population problems. Firstly, it is still a difficult job to keep birth rate low and the low growth rate and high growth volume will continue to coexist for many years to come. Secondly, the population security faces serious threats. For example, HIV/AIDS has started to spread quickly. Thirdly, no sufficient family planning is in place for the migrant population; the lack of support for old people in the rural areas where family planning has been adopted is becoming an increasingly significant problem; and a social security system that is helpful to family planning is yet to be improved.

In 2004, the population policy will continue to stress keeping birth rate at a low level, which stands at the core of the policy. The public begins to be more aware of the idea of population security. In the remaining two years of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the population development plans at the national and regional levels will be worked out, in which the issue of population and family planning will remain as a top priority on the national economic and social development agenda.

In 2004, the pilot work of "Take Care of Girls", a project launched by the National Population and Family Planning Commission in 2003, is conducted in a satisfactory manner. The disparity of male and female infants has gained more attention. Crimes including trading, killing and abandoning female infants will be punished more severely. Illegal scanning for selective termination of pregnancy will be dealt with more effectively.

II. Outlook on employment opportunities in 2004

According to experts’ estimates, approximately nine million new job opportunities will be created in 2004. China’s GDP is expected to grow between 8 to 9 percent in 2004. As one percent of GDP growth results in 700,000 to 800,000 new jobs according to current employment indicators, 8 to 9 percent of GDP growth will mean 6 to 7 million new jobs.

As it shows, the employment situation in 2004 is still quite stern. However, we should also note other elements that help solve the problem. Firstly, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, as well as local governments, all make it a top priority to create more jobs and have adopted active measures to create a better environment for more business and employment opportunities. Secondly, the economy has entered a new round of rapid growth and is expected to grow at more than 8 percent this year, which will offer a strong platform on which more jobs can be generated. Thirdly, more operable and practical measures in line with active employment policies will contribute to a better employment situation in 2004. Finally, the employment policies for college graduates will be further clarified and institutional barriers will be dismantled and a more favorable environment will be created for college graduates to get employed.

March 2004

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