By Shao Ting & Liu Weimin, Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Research Report No. 95, 2016 (Total 4978) 2016-7-25

Abstract: The trading volume on real estate market increased across the board in the first half of 2016, the cycle for the reduction of unsold homes had become shortened and it varied from city to city. The first-tier and most of the second-tier cities had witnessed an increase of both the number of sold homes and prices. At the same time, the appearance of so-called "land kings" (those who can afford the competitive bidding price for the most expensive land) had made the land value higher than the surrounding home price while the housing sales in some third- and fourth-tier cities increased significantly, but the price declined. Affected by the tightened regulatory policies and the centralized release of demands in the first half of 2016, the development of the real estate market will slow down in the second half of the year, but the destocking pressure in the third- and fourth-tier cities is still large. It is estimated that the annual sales area and investment of the real estate will increase by 20% and 4% respectively year on year. In the second half of the year we should focus on the market operation risks brought by the purchase of land by “land kings”, the release and spread of risks resulting from the reduction of unsold homes, as well as the accumulation and burst of the real estate bubbles with the swift increase of housing price. It is suggested that the relevant departments adopt the differentiated regulatory policies in light of the conditions of various cities, stabilize the housing financial policy, and further improve the openness and transparency of market information to meet social expectations.

Key words: real estate market, policy regulation, differentiation