By Zhang Liqun, Department of Macroeconomic Research, DRC

Research Report No. 153, 2016 (Total 5036) 2016-11-22

Abstract: At present, China's economy is experiencing the inflection point of the economic transformation, which is different from the inflection point of general economic cyclical changes. The transformation of economy from high growth to mid-to-high growth includes the stability of growth speed and the transition of growth model. Now the factors supporting economic growth and stability have increased significantly, but there are still unstable and uncertain factors. The change of growth pattern is in a critical period during which challenges need to be overcome and problems need to be resolved. With a comprehensive analysis of the demand factors, it is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2016 economic growth will not be less than the first three quarters of the year, and the annual growth will not be less than 6.7%. It is predicted that in 2017 the export volume will get stabilized at a low level, investment growth will not be less than 2016 and consumption will continue to grow steadily. According to a comprehensive analysis, the economic growth in 2017 will be roughly equal to that of 2017. We need to take more targeted measures from both the supply and demand sides, combine the short-term and long-term goals, stabilize demand and growth, promote the supply-side structural reform, constantly consolidate the basis for a mid-to-high economic growth, and enhance the quality of growth.

Key words: macroeconomic performance, analysis and prospects, bottom out