By Wu Zhenyu & Yang Guangpu, DRC

2017-6-6

Market expectations are the basic factor that influences the economic decision of market entities, and are also the core variables relating to macroeconomic theory and policy making. As China's economic growth has entered a transitional period, the effects resulting from the system, policy and economic operation have become multiplied and it is urgent for the government to strengthen and improve the projected market management in macro-control and risk prevention.

The swift increasing importance of projected management of macroeconomic regulation and control is mainly manifested in the following aspects. First, the market awareness of economic entities is significantly improved with the deepening of market reform. Second, the projected smooth economic growth has become difficult. Third, the interactions between domestic and international economies have become unprecedentedly active. Fourth, the financial markets and financial tools relating to projected management have developed rapidly. Fifth, it is necessary to strengthen the projected management in order to further promote reform across the board.

The present performance and main problems of projected management of China's macro economy are as follows. First, the study on projected management is under par with the performance of a socialist market economy due to the following reasons. 1. The diversified economic development goals make China’s projected management lag behind those countries with developed market economies. 2. The rapid change of the internal structure of the economy makes it more difficult to establish the projected management theory. 3. Some of the economic entities have not yet fully transformed to a market-oriented mode, making the implementation of related theory become difficult in China. Second, the projected management system is yet to be fleshed out. Third, the number of financial and market tools of projected management is still limited.

The policy options to strengthen and improve the market projected management are as follows. First, the government needs to establish a system of macroeconomic regulation and control. Second, the government needs to strengthen the communication and coordination with the market. Third, the government needs to further develop and use different tools for projected management and guidance. Fourth, the government needs to focus on the theoretic study of projected management for macro regulation and control.