By Wu Zhenjun & Zhang Yunhua, Research Team on “Risk Prevention and Countermeasures in the Economic Transformation Period”, DRC

Research Report, No.26, 2017 (Total 5301) 2018-02-01

Abstract: In recent years, the surge of agricultural product import and the fall of agricultural production net profit have posed severe challenges and certain harm to the normal performance of agricultural production. The research model on analysis of agricultural industrial risks indicates that only the production of rice, dairy products and live pigs is beyond agricultural industrial risks whereas corn, wheat and sugar production falls into the category of agricultural industrial risks and cotton and soybean production is in the high risky category. In response to the impact exerted by major agricultural product import and the risks spawned by the net profit fall, it is necessary to construct an early-warning system on agricultural industrial risks to identify, evaluate and address the risks induced by the increased volume of imported agricultural goods. The government needs to establish a precaution mechanism on the impact of agricultural product import to control the growth rate of imported agricultural goods through specific tools, legal means, close monitoring and relevant remedial measures so as to reduce the shock on net profit of agricultural production and farmers’ income brought about by excessive import. In addition, the government also needs to pay high attention to the production of corn, sugar, cotton and soybean and implement necessary trade supportive measures to ensure the safety of agricultural production.

Key words: agricultural industry, the response mechanism, the impact of import, net profit of production, risk prevention