By Yang Xiuna,China Development Research Foundation & Zhuo Xian, Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy, DRC

Research Report, No.151, 2018 (Total 5426) 2018-9-11

Abstract: Based on the reviews of various methods at home and abroad, this report redefines the quantitative criteria for middle-income earners and estimates and projects the proportion of middle-income earners in China in view of the upper and lower limits of fluctuation based on dynamic changes of the median income of all countries in the world. Research results suggest that middle-income groups in China have gradually increased. In 2016, the proportion of middle-income earners rose to 28.9% with an absolute scale of 400 million people. However, the proportion of middle-income earners in rural population and migrant population is much lower than that in urban population. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth to increase the proportion of middle-income earners. The proportions of middle-income earners will reach 33.0% and 44.3% respectively by 2020 and 2035 if the economic growth rate remains 6%, while the proportion of middle-income earners will only stand at a level similar to that in 2016 if the growth rate drops to 3%. China needs to clarify the quantitative criteria for middle-income earners as soon as possible so that relevant policies can accurately target at the marginalized groups in the middle-income population, especially through the important role of wealth distribution policies.

Key words: middle-income groups, proportions, quantitative standards