By Zhao Fujun, Research Team on “Strategies on Response to China-US Trade Frictions”, DRC

Research Report, No. 58, 2020 (Total 5802) 2020-3-26

Abstract: Since the outbreak of China-US trade frictions in 2018, some negative impacts have been exerted on bilateral trade, the global supply chain and the trade flows in some industries. The “Phase One” trade deal agreement will somewhat help ease bilateral trade frictions, but it may not change the protracted clashing tide in trade between China and the U.S. This frictional protraction will reshape the global trade volume, flows and goods structure, enhancing the position of Southeastern Asian countries in global trade, cross-border investment and economy, while weakening Sino-US positions in global trade market. Multinational corporations will thus adjust their investment patterns across the globe, boosting modifications in global division of labor and supply chain. However, if the pressure induced by bilateral trade frictions can be fueled into the efforts of industrial upgrading and regional economic cooperation, China will be able to enhance its level in global industrial value chain, and deepen its economic and trade cooperation with countries along the “Belt and Road” route, thus creating a new regional economic cooperation picture.

Key words: China-US trade frictions, protracted, international economic landscape