By Qian Cheng, Research Team on “Demographic Change and Employment Opportunities”, Institute of Public Administration and Human Resources, DRC

Research Report, No.194, 2020 (Total 5938) 2020-7-28

Abstract: Projections on supply-demand performance of labor force can provide important references for research and formulation of related policies. In the short term, the COVID-19 epidemic has led to mounting downward pressure on the Chinese economy and affected the employment, income and mobility of domestic labor force. From the medium-to-long-term perspective, the scale of working-age population, labor force participation rate and labor force supply will continue to decline. Addressing the structural problems of China’s labor force supply and demand will be the major task of the government’s employment-related work. It is projected that the number of China’s working-age population and labor force supply will drop to 963 million and 627 million respectively by 2030, with the labor force participation rate declining to 65.17 percent. As of 2030, the number of labor force demand in the primary and secondary industries will drop to 109 million and 160 million respectively whereas that of the tertiary industry will increase to 490 million. By then, the number of total labor force demand in China will reach 760 million. In light of the above-mentioned facts, it is suggested that related government departments formulate pertinent policies and measures to cope with the decline in the scale of labor force supply and the drop of labor force participation rate, remove structural barriers for employment, protect fundamental rights and interests of labor mobility and improve the quality of labor force.

Keywords: labor force supply, labor force demand, projections on future performance, policy options