By Zhang Yunhua, Research Department of Rural Economy, DRC & Zhang Chen, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Research Report, No.226, 2020 (Total 5970) 2020-9-18

Abstract: Changes in the number and structure of rural permanent residents will have a profound impact on the development of agriculture and rural areas, and rural area revitalization strategy needs to take this fact as a major variable and be made against a long-term background. This paper has used the cohort-component projection method to estimate the number and structure of rural population from now to 2035. By 2035, China’s permanent rural population will drop to 300 million to 350 million, accounting for no more than 25% of the total population; rural labor force aged from 16 to 59 will be within 106 million to 145 million, and population aged 60 and above will take up about 44.99% to 55.12%. Based on the research findings, in line with the four long-term and profound trends in the drastic reduction of rural population, the rapid decline in rural labor force, the notable escalation of rural aged population and the deviation of rural registered population from permanent population, rural area revitalization strategy needs to be planned 15 years in advance so as to accelerate agricultural development in a scaled, mechanized and intelligent way. In addition, work needs to be done to continuously enhance the rural pension security system and better integrate the in-depth reform on rural and urban household registration system, rural land system and rural collective property rights system.

Keywords: rural area revitalization strategy, rural permanent population, forecast, development trend changes