Great tourism statistics? Give us a break

Figures look good - a first glance but there is potential - reflecting a general complacency in some cities' tourism industries

By comparing different sets of statistics, even those from the official media outlets, one can learn a lot about the Chinese economy, its strengths and weaknesses.

The just-concluded holiday week following the Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival - the most important folk festival of the year - saw a massive number of people traveling on holiday trips or for family reunions, as in previous years.

With 344 million customers during the week, the Chinese hospitality industry generated 423 billion yuan ($62 billion; 58 billion euros; 49 billion) in revenue, according to Chinese press.

In a region-by-region breakdown, it is Guangdong, the southern province at the northern border of Hong Kong, that led all other places, showing 36.6 billion yuan in revenue.

But was it a record to boast about? Apparently not. The GDP of Guangdong was 7.95 trillion yuan in 2016, accounting for 10.7 percent of the national GDP.

But the share of its tourism revenue for the holiday week in the national figure was less than 8.7 percent, smaller than its GDP share by 2 percentage points.

This reflects a problem, especially when more than half of the country was experiencing a much harsher winter than Guangdong, and many middle-class families from such northern cities as Beijing were fleeing to somewhere in the south to escape the cold and often heavily-polluted air at home.

Not only did Guangdong fail to attract tourists with its mild weather and the kind of hospitality facilities that China's wealthiest province can afford, the nearby city of Hong Kong also did a discouraging job of cutting a larger slice in China's national pie, judging from the tourist crowds one could see there.

The amazing thing is that the unimpressive, if not disappointing, performance of the tourism industry has not been treated as a problem by the local press. Little analysis followed. Even less self-criticism from the tourism industry.

By contrast, the holiday week's tourism revenues in many other provinces saw much faster growth, though they were smaller than Guangdong's in overall numbers.

In the southwestern province of Yunnan, once thought of as part of China's internal "Third World", tourism saw an increase of more than 70 percent from last year. In Jiangxi province, the growth was more than 40 percent. Guangdong's growth was only 16 percent, one of the slowest among the big player provinces in Chinese tourism.

Tourism is a mirror of the general competitiveness of perhaps all services available. Although Guangdong was able to contribute the largest share (almost as much as Mexico) to China's overall GDP, its service industry still has much room for improvement despite its good resources - a milder winter for example. Guangdong really shouldn't be complacent.

Guangdong may also be a mirror of the Chinese cities that lead the rest of the nation in attracting foreign investment and in manufacturing for the export markets. For too long, factories were treated as their best assets. Their past success is still holding them back from developing towards catering for domestic customers, even when export-led manufacturing operations are moving to less-costly places.

Guangdong's economic planners have been held back from realizing that with the winter smog - a result of coal burning and stale air - remaining a recurrent public health concern in northern China, millions of people are potential customers for trips to warmer and less polluted places every winter. They could be making ever-longer stays and even buying second homes.

They represent a considerable demand from the new middle classes in a rapidly aging society. But the trend may not be easily appreciated by officials who were used to running a manufacturing economy powered by young workers only a decade or so ago.

If Guangdong, and by the same token Hong Kong, can adapt to their economic environment more quickly, they will have less of a problem in fueling their continued growth in the coming decade.

The author is an editor-at-large of China Daily.

Contact the writer at edzhang@chinadaily.com.cn