From Overseas Press

Can China's agriculture become self-sufficient?

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-09-02 13:04

The mediocre crops this year and "a shift in dietary habits" have "strained China's traditional sufficiency in grains, leading to higher prices and large imports," said an article in the Financial Times on Aug 30.

The question over whether the country's "policy of grain self-sufficiency will be sustainable" was raised by the rise in corn and soybean imports, as "demand rises and agricultural land shrinks under the advance of cities."

Chinese local market has seen record levels of wholesale corn prices, and industrial officials forecast the government would "import at least 1 million tons of the grain this year, up from just 50,000 tons in 2008-09 and the highest since crop failure in 1994-95."

Meanwhile, "China's rice imports have also been higher than usual this year, with big purchases in Vietnam and elsewhere."

The country has faced "apocalyptic warnings that its increasing demand would lead to food shortage worldwide ever since it began economic reforms 30 years ago." However, these warnings have "turned out to be wide of the mark."

But the country still has to "feed its population with limited fertile land, scarce water and relatively basic agricultural technologies." Its government considers "grain self-sufficiency a matter of national security and has responded to the challenges of boosting supplies by plowing a record amount of money into agriculture."

Chinese people's dietary shift is one key reason driving the rising corn and soybean imports this year. People are "eating more meat and less rice. In spite of rising family incomes, absolute rice demand in China is basically at the same level this year as it was 10 years ago, according to the US Department of Agriculture."

Another reason is that "consumption of key feed stocks such as corn and soybeans used to fatten livestock has jumped, with soybean consumption doubling in the past 10 years."

Many believe that "China will be mostly self-sufficient in future, especially if agricultural policies succeed in increasing crop yields."