Asia Pacific poses multiple challenges

The triple disaster has laid bare the asymmetrical character of the US-Japan alliance. But Japanese people's opposition to it is likely to weaken as Tokyo's security dependence on Washington grows.

Since Japan's nuclear energy development plan will be delayed, it will rely more on import of oil and deepen its trust in the US to protect its interests in waterways as distant as the Persian Gulf. Many scholars believe that the huge impact of the triple disaster on Japanese people is likely to become the most important factor influencing their self-cognition and opinion toward the US-Japan alliance in the long run.

The triple disaster has played the role of an activator, examining and intensifying Japan's cooperation with the US. Japan's relationship with the ROK has improved, too, because of the triple disaster, giving a shot in the arm to the US-Japan-ROK coalition in Northeast Asia. Australia has also played a very active role in this development.

The overflowing impact of the triple disaster has highlighted the necessity and urgency of non-traditional security cooperation in Asia Pacific, especially among East Asian countries.

China, Japan and the ROK have strengthened communications and cooperation in warning against earthquakes and other natural disasters. According to Japanese Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto, the Japanese government is preparing for "revival diplomacy" aimed at helping rebuild quake- and tsunami-hit areas.

Cooperation in non-traditional security is less sensitive than in traditional security because common interests are above competition and could help reduce doubts and build mutual trust among countries. But considering the dominant role that the US has played in relief and rescue operations in Japan and the strong constraints China's rescue team faced, we have to assess the US factor in its entirety while promoting non-traditional security cooperation in East Asia.

The triple disaster has improved Japan-Russia ties, even if temporarily. Japan's increasing demand for natural gas from Russia would force China to face more competition in acquiring energy resources. After the nuclear leak from the Fukushima Daiichi plant, Japan was forced to shut down or suspend many nuclear power plants. As a result, it has had to import more oil and natural gas. Statistics show that Japan's import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in April 2011 increased by 23 percent year-on-year.

Japan's increasing demand for oil and LNG will make it more dependent on Russia. It is thus possible that competition between China and Japan for importing oil and gas will become fiercer, creating more challenges for Beijing to secure the supply of its energy resources.

The authors are with the Institute of Asia and Pacific Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 08/10/2011 page9)