Time for a peaceful Peninsula

There have been frequent diplomatic negotiations over the Korean Peninsula, including visits to China by Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Republic of Korea (ROK) President Lee Myung-bak, and US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell's visits to China, the ROK and Japan.

Frequent interactions between and among leaders of related countries can facilitate better communication and thus prevent them from misjudging the situation and taking wrong steps.

After the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong-il's sudden death, some people predicted that it would be difficult to maintain peace and stability on the Peninsula, which is vital for peace and stabilization of Northeast Asia. But the developments after Kim Jong-il's death show there is reason to be optimistic about the Peninsula's future.

First, the transition of power in the DPRK seems to have been successful. Second, related countries have played the role of "responsible stakeholders" and restrained from taking provocative actions against Pyongyang after Kim Jong-il's death, which indicates that they have agreed to maintain peace and stability on the Peninsula.

Despite that, many people still have doubts whether the young and inexperienced Kim Jong-un could lead the country, but till now the situation in the new DPRK has been running smoothly. After Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke in 2008, he expedited the grooming of the new leadership to be headed by Kim Jong-un. Now there are enough reasons to believe that the DPRK people have not only accepted but also backed Kim Jong-un's leadership.

In recent years, the DPRK has focused on developing its economy and improving its people's livelihoods. It has tried to open the gates of national reunification, too, which requires a stable international environment. But to create a favorable global environment, the DPRK has to improve its ties with the ROK and the US. In return, it should get food and energy aid and the sanctions against it must be lifted.

From the beginning of 2011, the DPRK has tried to resume the Pyongyang-Seoul dialogue unconditionally, hold the third DPRK-ROK summit and restart talks on tourism in and around Mount Kumgang. The DPRK also sent a delegation to the US, and the two countries have held talks in New York and Geneva.

Washington and Seoul, too, want to establish further contacts with Pyongyang. But Seoul's tough policy toward Pyongyang hasn't changed, nor has the latter's stance against those policies. On the contrary, it has intensified the confrontation between them. Therefore, the ROK has to make its policy toward the DPRK more flexible. The US, too, doesn't want to provoke the DPRK, though it wants Pyongyang to suspend its nuclear weapons' program.

Generally speaking, the US, the ROK and Japan, without changing their policies, have exercised restraint vis-a-vis the DPRK because they don't want to suspend contacts with Pyongyang after Kim Jong-il's death. All the three countries favor a policy that would relax the situation in the DPRK. But they should also make efforts to resume the Six-Party Talks as soon as possible and promote stable DPRK-ROK relations.

The DPRK wants to resume the Six-Party Talks unconditionally, while the US, ROK and Japan insist that it suspend its uranium enrichment program, abandon its plans to conduct nuclear and guided missiles tests, re-invite the International Atomic Energy Agency to check its Yongbyon nuclear facility and stop provoking the ROK if it wants the Six-Party Talks to resume.

The suspension of Pyongyang's uranium enrichment program is the key factor. The US, the ROK and Japan want the DPRK to give it up but the DPRK seems determined to continue developing light water reactors before a peace treaty is signed and sanctions against it are lifted. Denuclearization of the Peninsula is a long-term process, so all the parties have to work out a practical road map.

According to an agreement reached at a meeting in Beijing last month, the DPRK agreed to suspend its uranium enrichment program for 240,000 tons of food aid from the US, which is a good beginning.

The vital question for all related countries is to find ways to make the Six-Party Talks a success once they resume. A failure to produce results would not only undermine the mechanism of the Six-Party Talks, but also have a negative impact on the peace and stability on the Peninsula.

DPRK-ROK relations, vital to the peace and stability on the Peninsula, have fluctuated in recent years. After the Cheonan incident and exchange of fire over Yeonpyeong Island, the ROK strengthened its military with the help of the US, and the DPRK appeared to intensify its nuclear and missiles program, and increased the number of warships in nearby seas.

All these have raised fears of a military conflict between the two sides. The DPRK once announced that it would sever contacts with the ROK and their relations were strained after Kim Jong-il's death. The DPRK is unhappy with the ROK government's decision to prevent civil society members from visiting Pyongyang to mourn Kim Jong-il's death. And the ROK has prepared its military to counter possible action from the DPRK, which may heighten tensions.

The demand of the times is that all the countries work together to preserve peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula through close communication and coordination. They should not misjudge the situation and take unnecessary military gambles. And China should continue playing its role in promoting talks and appealing to all sides to exercise restraint.

But the onus is on the ROK to play a more active role to improve its relations with Pyongyang.

The author is vice-director of Institute of World Political Studies under the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

(China Daily 01/17/2012 page9)