No more than it can handle

Foreign policy will continue to adapt to new circumstances while adhering to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence

Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi summarized the five basic features of China's diplomacy over the past decade during a news conference last week held on the sidelines of the annual session of the National People's Congress.

He said that China has strived for national security and development; sought regional and international political, economic and cultural cooperation; spurred reform of global governance to increase the say of developing countries in global affairs; promoted an open and progressive national image by conducting state visits and hosting international events such as the Olympics; and shouldered more international responsibilities to promote world peace and development.

This has raised the question: what will China's diplomacy be for the next 10 years?

A country's diplomacy is determined by subjective and objective factors, with the subjective factors reflecting the government's initiative in making and implementing foreign policies and its ability to understand and influence trends, and the objective factors being all incidents that occur outside the country that must be heeded.

The subjective aspect of Chinese diplomacy answers the questions of what role it should take in global governance and how it should participate in international affairs. Predictably, the future Chinese leadership will adapt to new circumstances while adhering to the country's long-held foreign-policy guidelines, and will promote the building of a harmonious world and contradict the prevalent stereotype that a strong power always seeks hegemony.

People often mention Deng Xiaoping's guidelines of "keeping a low profile" and "making due contribution" when predicting the development of Chinese diplomacy, with some arguing that China is keeping too low a profile to make its due contribution.

But this argument does not hold much water. The cornerstone of Chinese diplomacy lies in its national interests, and the country's diplomatic initiatives should be aimed at defending its national interests. Deng's guideline is no exception, and China has been conforming to it, keeping a low profile and making its due contribution in order to safeguard its national interests, which China will continue to do.

In comparison, the objective factors affecting China's diplomatic approach are more complicated. Above all, both developed and developing countries have increased expectations of China. Developed countries want China to play a more important role in global governance and to shoulder more responsibilities. Some even expect China to join the United States and Europe in a "Group of Three" and become an "equal stakeholder" in global governance. Meanwhile, developing countries rejoice in China's rise and hope China can take the lead in confronting the developed world.

But China should not undertake more than it can handle. Indeed, China should shoulder its due responsibilities as a rising power based on the principle of not intervening in the internal affairs of other countries.

After all, China is still a developing country and its poverty-stricken population exceeds 100 million based on its rural poverty line of 2,300 yuan ($364) a year, which remained one of the lowest in the developing world until it was raised from the 1,274-yuan threshold at the end of last year. Even the new standard is lower than that of India and a number of other developing nations.

The rise of China and other emerging economies has changed the global balance of power and expedited the process of multi-polarization. But a multi-polar world is yet to materialize, and this is another factor affecting Chinese diplomacy.

As multi-polarization is not yet established, power politics and hegemony still dominate the world stage and the economic primacy of the developed world remains unshakable for the present. Such circumstances require that China should enhance its relations with developed countries and, at the same time, take a stand against power politics and hegemony.

Meanwhile, worldwide emergencies also challenge China's policymaking, as the world seems to be becoming increasingly unpredictable.

Facing such a complicated international environment, China should carefully assess its diplomacy on the basis of domestic and international changes and strive to improve it by steadfastly observing its principles and facilitating peace-oriented foreign relations and theoretical innovation in the next 10 years.

The author is deputy director of the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 03/14/2012 page9)