The ROK needs new thinking

When voters in the Republic of Korea go to the polls to elect their new president on Dec 19, foreign policy will not be the main concern for a majority of them. The economy, jobs and welfare programs have been center stage in the campaign debates. However, foreign policy will be no less important for the ROK over the next five years.

No matter who wins, whether it is Park Geun-hye, the ruling Saenuri Party candidate, or Moon Jae-in, the opposition Democratic United Party candidate, the ROK's new leader must steer the country through turbulent waters, as history shows that power shifts are accompanied by uncertainties and the likelihood of clashes increases.

In a remarkable coincidence, China, Japan and the ROK are going through leadership changes at nearly the same time. Xi Jinping became the new head of the Communist Party of China on Nov 15, while Shinzo Abe will become Japan's prime minister for the second time after Liberal Democratic Party won election on Dec 16.

Economic distress and wounded national pride have nourished a misguided nationalism in Japan. If Shinzo Abe resorts to nationalistic policies, by amending Japan's pacifist constitution and stepping up militarization, it will heighten tensions in Asia and turn back history.

US President Barack Obama was re-elected as US president on Nov 6 and his strong commitment to Asia was made apparent by his pivot to Asia strategy during his first term, which has been widely viewed as an attempt to contain China. Some Asian countries, including the ROK, are obviously in a dilemma over which of them to stand by.

The island disputes in the South China Sea obviously spring to mind, as does the tug of war between the Trans-Pacific Partnership led by the US and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership led by China.

Meanwhile, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea successfully launched a long-range rocket on Dec 12, which has added to the ROK's woes.

What should the ROK's newly elected leader do under such conditions?

The new president should strike a balance between the US and China, and suggest a liberal cooperative vision for a new order in Northeast Asia. The ROK should not contribute to forming a sort of entente with the US and Japan against China.

The ROK also needs to open dialogue and re-establish relations with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The DPRK's rocket launch has heightened tensions and stimulated Japan's militarism. It is necessary to rebuild communication channels with the DPRK and to maintain close cooperation with China to handle the DPRK's missile and nuclear issues.

Outgoing ROK president Lee Myung-bak took a hard-line toward the DPRK and abolished human and economic exchanges and communication channels. The budding mutual cooperation between the two nations, which the previous two liberal governments tried hard to nourish, perished. He also estranged ties with China by declaring a thoroughly pro-US stance. This brought China and the DPRK closer at the expense of the ROK.

Lee and the ruling Saenuri party have also wasted the Obama administration's willingness to let the ROK take the initiative in relations with the DPRK over the past five years. Entrapped by many other urgent issues, the Obama administration favored the ROK taking the lead in dealing with the DPRK. However, this has only resulted a setback in relations between two the Koreas.

Comparing the two candidates, Moon Jae-in suggests a liberal and ambitious vision of Northeast Asian cooperation, including the DPRK. On the other hand, Park Geun-hye sounds more conservative. If elected, she should not follow in Lee's footsteps and should try to move forward beyond the boundaries of her conservative party.

Turbulent times tend to induce nationalistic sentiments and protectionist policies. However, the newly elected leaders in Asia need a cooperative, liberal vision for an emerging new order. The ROK may be able to enjoy a good relationship with the US during Obama's second term and it is good time to initiate a more constructive policy toward the DPRK. Also it is necessary to keep close contact with China to draw the DPRK to the negotiating table. Trilateral cooperation between the ROK, China and Japan is more than necessary. The ROK should play the role of mediator between China and Japan.

Nevertheless, if military and economic competition between the US and China grow, and tensions between China and Japan continue to increase, the ROK's challenges will become even bigger.

As power shifts are accompanied by uncertainties, it needs a new thinking to navigate the uncertainties.

The author is a professor at the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Pusan National University, the ROK.

(China Daily 12/18/2012 page9)