What election means to Israel

Besides, if Iran's recent steps to reach out to the international community succeed in reaching a comprehensive agreement on its nuclear issue, it could make an Israeli military strike an act "without just cause".

On Jan 16, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said the religious decree issued by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei banning nuclear weapons is binding on the Iranian government. Khamenei said Tehran is not seeking to build atomic weapons and the possession of such weapons is not only a "sin" but also "useless, harmful and dangerous".

Moreover, Iran's presidential election is scheduled for June this year. And some Western countries hope to use the leadership transition in Iran and the differences among the country domestic political forces to impede the progress of its nuclear program instead of launching a military strike.

Given the difficulties in taking military action against Iran, Netanyahu has to continue his hard-line policies toward the Palestinians. In November, Israel began a widespread campaign, called "Pillar of Defense", in the Gaza Strip. After the United Nations General Assembly approved the de facto recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state in November, Netanyahu ignored international opposition to order the expansion of existing Jewish settlements in the West Bank and build more houses for Jews in occupied east Jerusalem.

His move not only drew strong criticism from the Palestinians, Arab countries and the international community, but also jeopardized the chances of renewing the peace process in Middle East. Israel's hard-line stance on the Palestinian issue, combined with the result of the test on exhumed body of late Palestinian Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat for poisoning, the relative calm between Israelis and Palestinians after the "Pillar of Defense" operation is likely to be shattered again. And it is highly likely that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia will unite to start a new round of anti-Israel campaign.

An anti-Israel campaign, in turn, will help Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood to consolidate their position and could even enhance their image globally. And an escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could ease the pressure on Syria's Bashar al-Assad government, possibly the only ally of Iran in the region, which would not help Netanyahu in his efforts to stop Iran from continuing its nuclear program.

So it is likely that an increasingly right-leaning Israeli society and the re-election of Netanyahu will compel Israel to adopt an even tougher foreign policy. But by flexing its muscle, Israel may not be able to garner the expected international support to launch a military strike against Iran. Therefore, it is uncertain whether the hard-line tactics of Netanyahu will help Israel in the long run.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 01/21/2013 page9)