Standoff over Diaoyu Islands

The US' ambiguous strategy has become clearer through some of its politicians' explicit remarks on the Diaoyu Islands that do not tally with those made by Washington in the past.

Despite being a kind of response to Tokyo's growing concerns that "the US will probably not fulfill its security commitments to Japan if China's surprise attack changes the status quo of Japan's administration of the Diaoyu Islands", Washington's stance of "not recognizing China's acquisition of the islands' administration in nonpeaceful manners" means a step closer toward supporting Japan's de facto control of the islands. This also means the US is taking sides in the territorial dispute.

The Diaoyu Islands issue is a Cold War relic left by the US in which it has no direct interest. The Obama administration should make the dispute part of its broader Asia-Pacific strategy. China and Japan both are of great importance to the US, albeit in different degrees. The US needs China's help to resolve some thorny global and regional issues, while Japan is believed to play an important role in balancing China's rising influence in Asia.

To serve its interests, Washington thus needs a lingering dispute between the two Asian powers, though it will try to stop them from going to war, because that would not be in US' interest. This indicates that the US is unlikely to take a clear stance against China, as has been seen in Washington's support for Tokyo at open forums but warning it in private against taking reckless action.

Despite its pro-Japan remarks, the US has never made it clear what means it will employ to intervene in a possible China-Japan conflict, indicating that Washington has given Tokyo a blank check upon concerns that substantial supports to Tokyo will possibly provoke Japan to take rash action. The US believes that maintaining the "right" balance between China and Japan will help it minimize costs and maximize interests in its Asia venture. The breaking of this delicate balance, Washington thinks, will compromise its interests.

As a kind of tactical change, Washington's clearer-looking stance on the Diaoyu Islands issue is in response to Japan's strong demands as well as its own concerns over China's increasing moves. But from a strategic point of view, the US is expected to maintain its ambiguity on the issue.

The author is a researcher with the Institute of American Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 01/26/2013 page5)