Syria caught in a war of attrition

The 24th Arab League summit issued a declaration on March 26, giving Syria's seat in the league and everything that comes with it to the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, recognizing the Syrian opposition as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The Arab League suspended Syria's membership in November 2011, since when the seat had been lying vacant.

On March 27, Russia criticized the Arab League for recognizing the Syrian opposition as the only representative of the country, saying the declaration was "illegal and void". By recognizing the NCSROF as the only representative of the Syrian people, the Arab League has not only violated Syria's sovereignty but also revealed two important factors.

First, the Arab League is committed to supporting the Syrian opposition and toppling the Bashar al-Assad government. The Syrian crisis has transformed from a domestic conflict between the government and opposition forces to a battlefield in which the latter have joined hands with foreign forces to overthrow the Syrian government. Foreign intervention, however, has further thwarted the possibility of a political resolution to the crisis.

There is now evidence to suggest that the Syrian opposition is in a state of disarray and, by granting Damascus's seat to the Syrian opposition coalition, the Arab League wants to lend it more political support in a bid to turn the tide. This is a move fraught with danger as the head of Syria's jihadist Al-Nusra Front has pledged allegiance to al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, which will make the West hesitant to arm the opposition, covertly or overtly.

Second, the Syrian opposition now is in a fix, fighting a serious leadership crisis. Over the past two years, the Syrian opposition forces, with the support of the United States-led West, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries have been growing stronger, but they are still not in a position to overthrow the Assad government.

Two days before the Arab League declaration, the leader of the NCSROF, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, announced his resignation, accusing foreign powers of withholding aid to the opposition because they wanted to control it. The group has reportedly not accepted Khatib's resignation, though.