Saga of shell-shocked Syria

Since the outbreak of the conflict in Syria, the West has been worried about the possibility of the Assad government having chemical weapons. Syria reportedly makes Sarin, Tabun, VX and mustard gas-type chemical weapons. On July 23, 2012, Syria claimed that it had some chemical weapons, reserved for national defense against foreign countries, but the government would never use these weapons against Syrian citizens.

In other words, that Syria has chemical weapons is not a secret and the key issue is whether the Syrian government has used them. Syria is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention, and chemical weapons have become the Assad government's trump card but their use can prompt external forces to join the conflict.

Chemical weapons, a highly serious and sensitive issue, has a direct bearing on the developments of the Syrian crisis, the country's future, regional stability and international security. Assad has been treading with extreme caution on the issue and will not dare to cross the line. But the Syrian government cannot avoid the issue of chemical weapons even after repeatedly denying that it has ever used them.

A UN team was ready to investigate the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria when, fearing a repeat of Washington's actions before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, Syria said it cannot trust UN investigators (from the US and Britain) and instead wanted Russian experts to investigate the issue.

Many Western experts and leaders might try to convince Obama that Assad has crossed the "red line" and hence this is the time to act. But without concrete proof that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons, the US is unlikely to intervene militarily in the Syrian conflict. Nevertheless, other countries may use the chemical weapons issue to intervene in the Syrian conflict. The situation in Syria remains fluid and the international community is monitoring it closely.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 05/14/2013 page9)