Thucydides trap can be avoided

Some say that China's increasingly aggressive posture towards the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea has increased the risks of China and the US falling into the Thucydides trap.

For six decades after the World War II, a US "Pax Pacifica" has provided the security framework for Asian countries. China, which will soon overtake the US as the world's largest economy, will seek more benefits in the region and demand revisions to the rules established by the US. In this context, the territorial disputes may serve as the breaking point.

However, there is possibility that the China and the US will be able to manage the disputes.

China does not aim for conflict. Actually, China is seeking a balance between defending its national interests and maintaining an agreeable regional environment. China is firm in defending its territorial sovereignty and legitimate rights, but, at the same time, it seeks peaceful development and is willing to solve the disputes with related parties through bilateral dialogue and negotiation. China made this point clear to the US. During the summit, President Xi Jinping made clear China's stance on the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea.

As for the US, the country acknowledges China's position and has realized China's determination to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Misunderstandings and miscalculations can be avoided. As for the Diaoyu Islands, China's response to Japan's "nationalization" of three of the islands was beyond the expectations of both Japan and the US. The US will try to avoid any awkward situations in the future.

It is difficult for the US to change its basic principles when involving itself in the territorial issues in the Asia-Pacific. However, the US will be more cautious in staking out its position, and will strengthen management and control over related issues. The most likely situation is that the US will maintain the pressure on both China and other parties involved in the disputes, in order to prevent the disputes from escalating out of control.

Strategically, China and the US have achieved an agreement that a zero-sum game will harm both sides' interests and they will cooperate to avoid the Thucydides trap. Specifically, in the process of improving military exchanges and managing territorial issues, the two countries may find a way to finally establish a new type of relationship.

The author is deputy director at the department of international and strategic studies of the China Institute of International Studies.

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