Difficult path ahead for Egypt

Morsi's rule was marked by street protests with the opposition urging Egyptians to initiate a "second revolution". The result: the Muslim Brotherhood, which not long ago claimed to enjoy widespread public support, became the target of the people.

Before the military moved in to oust Morsi from power, about 14 million people were reported to have hit the streets, demanding his removal and clashing with Muslim Brotherhood activists. The opposition claimed that more than 22 million Egyptians had signed a petition demanding that Morsi step down. And after the mass protests started, six ministers, including the foreign minister, resigned in support of the opposition. The mass demonstrations and ministers' resignations show Egypt's secular and liberal forces and the Muslim Brotherhood are simply incompatible.

The Egyptian military's decision to remove president Morsi from power and suspend the constitution may not be strictly "constitutional", but it certainly has the support of a majority of the people.

Before moving in, the military had issued an ultimatum to Morsi to meet the demands of millions of protestors in the streets and restore order within 48 hours. Morsi failed to do that and the military swung into action to remove him , but without causing a "bloody massacre" and with the promise of supporting a civilian leadership.

After announcing the suspension of Egypt's constitution, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, supreme commander of the armed forces, laid out the road map for the country and said the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, Adli Mansour, would be the country's interim president until presidential elections can be held.

Military intervention in political affairs is not new in some developing countries. The Egyptian military's action, however, is a manifestation of the tortuous course of Egypt's social and political development. To ease the crisis, therefore, the interim government should put the road map into action, that is, hold elections at the earliest; amend the constitution; form a reconciliation, inclusive government that represents and has the support of all Egyptians; restore social order; take immediate steps to overcome economic difficulties; and prevent any division within the military.

The last task is especially important, because if the military breaks up into pro-Morsi and anti-Morsi camps, it could lead to a bloody civil war.

The situation in Egypt is worrying. Being the most powerful political organization in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood will not take things lying down, which it was forced to do for more than five decades. In fact, it has organized counter-protests claiming the removal of Morsi is illegal and the military has trampled democracy.

On July 5, it rejected a call to cooperate with the interim government, asking its members and supporters to take to the streets to protest against the military's action. Bloody clashes between supporters and opponents of Morsi have broken out across Egypt, leaving dozens dead and thousands injured.

Although the Egyptian military will take further action, if need be, to restore order in the country, it cannot prevent small bloody clashes. But as long as it does not break up into anti- and pro-Morsi factions, Egypt will avoid plunging into a large-scale civil war.

The author is a researcher in Middle East Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 07/11/2013 page9)