Iran nuke talks still gloomy

Since Obama took office in 2009, his administration has been at loggerheads with the Republicans and after the US was forced to give up the use of force against Syria, he is eager to make some tangible progress on the Iranian nuclear issue. In addition, the US needs Iran's cooperation in solving many tough regional issues in the Middle East.

However, there are still many obstacles and challenges to be overcome if the two countries are to achieve a lasting thaw in relations. The hardliners in Iran strongly oppose Rouhani's attempts to ease tensions with the West. Although Iran's tough conservative forces represented by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps didn't win the presidential election in June, they still have great influence in the country.

In the US, sanctions against Iran is one of the few issues the Democrats and Republicans have agreed on, so it will be quite difficult for Obama to persuade the Congress to allow Iran to carry out peaceful uranium enrichment. Moreover, it's difficult for the US to change its attitude toward Iran, because one of the long-term pillars of the US' Middle East policy has been containing Iran.

Although Rouhani has said Iran would like to dispel Western countries' misgivings about Iran's nuclear program, and has agreed to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect the country's nuclear facilities, his goal is to ease the economic sanctions and gain the right to enrich uranium.

The US and its allies want Iran to make concessions by stopping uranium enrichment and closing down its underground uranium enrichment facilities. Obama insists that the US will ease the sanctions on Iran only when it is strongly convinced that Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons program. The US will resort to force if diplomatic means fail. Hence key issues such as Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities are the first obstacle of improving bilateral relations.

Meanwhile, the warming relations between the US and Iran have caused anxiety in Israel. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has displayed his distrust of Iran's change in attitude, and he is pressing the Obama administration for stronger sanctions. It is highly unlikely that the US will make any agreement with Iran if it means sacrificing Israel's interests, as the Obama administration was heavily criticized in the US because of the strained relations with Israel. Obama told the UN General Assembly in September that the Iranian nuclear issue and the Palestinian Question are the two top priorities for his diplomatic policy, but getting Israel on board will not be easy and that is indispensable if the two issues are to be resolved.

The author is a researcher with the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 11/01/2013 page9)