Syria looks to Geneva for peace

Facing internal differences and struggles, the Syrian opposition is deeply divided over Geneva II. In fact, it remained undecided about the makeup of its delegation till the last minute. The Syrian National Coalition, the main opposition group founded outside Syria, enjoys the support of the West and is likely to represent the opposition at the Geneva conference.

But the Syrian National Coalition's legitimacy has been challenged by other opposition groups, and one of them is Jaysh al-Islam, or the Army of Islam. The Jaysh comprises more than 40 armed groups around Damascus and criticizes the SNC leaders for not being headed by those fighting in Syria.

The total number of opposition groups in and outside Syria is more than 1,000. And since the opposition is poorly organized as a cohesive force, it has found it difficult to choose a delegation that all the factions recognized to the peace talks, where the formation of a transitional government is likely to be decided.

Moreover, if Assad is deprived of his place in the transitional government in compliance with the demands of the opposition, the peace conference is doomed to fail. The reason: the Syrian government will under no circumstances accept such a deal. And if Geneva II decides to keep Assad in the transitional government, the opposition will not accept it. The stalemate is thus likely to continue.

But still there is reason for optimism. On Jan 3, al-Qaida's Iraqi wing declared the founding of the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" in the Iraqi city of Fallujah, triggering a new round of turmoil in the Middle East. The active presence of al-Qaida in Syria makes it increasingly difficult to clear the country of terrorist elements. And given its desperation to bring down al-Qaida, the US will perhaps make a concession and accept a role for Assad in the transitional government. If that happens, it certainly will be a breakthrough.

As far as Russia is concerned, its proposal in September that Syria place its chemical weapons arsenal under international control to be destroyed was welcomed by Syria and the US both, which paved the way for a political settlement to the crisis. So it will be worth watching what proposals Russia puts forward at Geneva II.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.