Ukraine has to wait for EU membership

Few would disagree that Ukraine's long-term economic development depends on attracting investment and improving output. Investment by EU companies can help with investment, as well as sophisticated technology and managerial expertise. Also, the privatization process could be reactivated in the country with EU companies launching merger and acquisition activities.

But there is a possibility of Ukraine's terms of trade deteriorating in the short term after the implementation of the free trade deal. That somewhat explains why it will be implemented at the end of 2015 and not immediately.

The Association Agreement's ratification is a periodic process in EU's foreign strategy, which targets Ukraine because its a major nation in the European bloc's Eastern Partnership Project. After its expansion in 2004, the EU believes its influence in economic, political and institutional spheres has extended into the territory of the Commonwealth of Independent States, which is unofficially led by Russia.

Not content with the eastward extension of EU's influence, its ally the United States has been providing moral and financial support to Ukraine to join the EU and totally disengage with Russia. The US also criticizes Russia for its stance on Ukraine and has imposed severe economic sanctions it.

Moscow, on its part, is worried over Kiev ratifying the agreement with Brussels because it sees Ukraine as an indispensable part of a broader "Eurasian union". The spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Ukraine to "disassociate" with the EU. In fact, Russia could still obstruct Ukraine's path to becoming a EU member, because that will take years to materialize.

Ukraine can join the EU only after all EU member states ratify the agreement separately, which could take a long time. The fact that the economic deal has already been delayed by more than a year and vested interests in Ukraine could create strong obstacles to institutional reforms in the country are also likely to stretch Ukraine's quasi-membership status over a very long period.

The author is an associate professor at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.