(Agencies)
Updated: 2007-11-26 11:13

Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines, predicted that campaigns would run positive ads promoting candidates until Christmas, then switch to a tougher tone in the week leading to the caucuses.

"There's not much of a window there between Christmas spirit and caucus battle," Goldford said. "There's a certain amount of guesswork because we haven't been in this position before."

Tim Albrecht, a spokesman for Republican Mitt Romney, said all the campaigns will work to design ads that stand out while also remaining appropriate for the holiday season. "With the holiday ads and the added retailers, no doubt it's going to be a bit more cluttered this time than maybe years past," he said.

Campaigns strategists say they worry more about turning voters off in Iowa, where attending caucuses requires effort and commitment.

Fergus Cullen, the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, said New Hampshire voters understand that politics will intrude on their holiday.

"I expect candidates will work the Communion line at St. Joe's on Christmas Eve," he joked. "New Hampshire voters take the process seriously and they fully expect to be in the thick of politics during the holiday season and that includes contrasting message. It won't harm candidates if they run aggressive campaigns."

All this costs money. Television stations must provide air time to federal election candidates beginning 45 days before an election. If candidates pay top rate, they can grab a specific time slot and bump other advertisers who had the space reserved.

Saying no to local advertisers puts stations in a difficult position, but most business people understand, said Steve Lake, national sales manager at KCRG-TV in Cedar Rapids.

"Most of them have been through this before and they understand we can only do what we can do," Lake said. "There's quite a bit of displacement that goes on."

Lake said bumped advertisers usually are offered a spot elsewhere in the station's schedule with a comparable rating, but with only so many hours in the day, some advertisers will be out of luck. The pressure will build as front-running candidates boost their ad buys and lesser-known candidates go for broke, he said.

Paul Fredericksen, general manager of KCCI-TV in Des Moines, said all the station can do is seek a balance between political buyers and retailers during the expected holiday crunch.

"One thing we always keep in mind is that political is temporary and retail is something that is a livelihood day in and day out," Fredericksen said. "But at the same time on the political side, there are certain rules and regulations we have to comply with."

Station managers expect many candidates will pay top rates to ensure sought-after time slots, given a campaign season that already has set TV advertising spending records.

Both Romney and Democrat Barack Obama have spent at least $4 million each for ads in Iowa. Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bill Richardson also have exceeded the more than $2.5 million that Kerry spent in the state in 2003 and 2004.

   1 2   

   1 2