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Obama popular in Europe, but questions remain

(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-07-28 09:34

There is little question that Barack Obama captured Europe's heart during the tumultuous visit that ended on Saturday evening, but hard questions remain about whether Obama, if he wins, could transform that enthusiasm into concrete policy gains.

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After the harsh anti-Americanism that has thrived in Europe for most of this decade, it was jarring to see a US politician receive such adoration from the public, press, and the continent's leaders, who seemed almost to swoon in his presence.

Polls show not only that a strong majority in countries like Britain would choose Obama over Republican rival John McCain if they could, but also that the general distaste for the United States has softened somewhat as Obama's White House bid gathers pace.

"Since the race has been going on, we've found a slight movement toward the US," said Anthony Wells, research chief for PoliticsHome in Britain. "I'm confident this is the Obama influence. The anti-Americanism of recent years seems closely tied to George Bush. The people love Obama."

But many analysts believe that if Obama completes his march to the Oval Office, this backing will dissipate the first time he presses Europe to send more troops to Afghanistan or to support an aggressive US military stance at odds with Europe's strong preference for diplomacy over cruise missiles.

They also believe that complex long-standing disputes over issues like trade tariffs and the use of genetically modified food would not be solved more easily just because of the new president's evident popularity in Europe.

Germano Dottori, an analyst at Rome's Center for Strategic Studies, said the enthusiasm for Obama is likely to "cool down at the first real test" because he does not reflect a fundamental policy change.

"Everyone is ready to clap their hands when Obama talks about 'tearing down the walls,' but when he asks Europe to pay the price for it I am sure the doubts will resurface," Dottori said. "Obama is not calling for a demilitarization of US foreign policy and when European audiences realize this, their enthusiasm will fade away."

This dynamic can already be seen in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel, through her spokesman, showered Obama with praise for his stated desire to work with Europe, but pointed out that Germany cannot accede to his desire to place more troops in Afghanistan for the battle against the Taliban and Al-Qaida.