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Manila's Arroyo still shaky despite political wins

(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-12-10 15:56

Power of the Purse

Analysts say despite dismal showings in opinion polls, she is supported by the military, most parts of the powerful church and by disunity in the opposition.

Anti-government protesters display a puppet of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo during a rally outside a Church in Manila November 30, 2008. Opposition politicians and some Catholic bishops have called for demonstrations this weekend, incensed by a proposal by Arroyo's supporters to change the constitution and extend her six-year term beyond 2010. [Agencies]

"It's not so much that she has more confidence, but she knows that the opposition is not anything to reckon with," Clarita Carlos, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, told Reuters.

"The opposition is divided. Except for a common desire to get her out from power, her enemies could not agree on anything. And they don't have any alternative to offer."

Benito Lim, a political science professor at the Jesuit-run Ateneo de Manila University, said any move to extend Arroyo's tenure would falter at the Senate because most of those aspiring to replace her in the 2010 elections would come from there.

"The move to amend the constitution in the Senate is dead in the water," Lim said. "Why would these people aspiring to be president agree to postpone the elections and keep her in power beyond 2010? But, they're not rushing to oust her at the moment."

That was also because any move to oust her would bring Vice-President Noli de Castro to office, who is not from the ruling party combine, he said.

Ultimately, he said, Arroyo looked safe to continue until 2010, but was unlikely to stay in power beyond that.

By virtue of the strength of her office, she still would still have allies, despite her unpopularity, other analysts said.

"Up to her last day in office, Arroyo has the power of the purse," Earl Parreno of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms told Reuters, adding the president has control over the bureaucracy and the army and could even wield influence over her appointees in the courts and the election agency.

"The vast resources and machinery of the government are under her control, so you will expect candidates to be lining up at her door even if they don't want the public to see them near her."

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