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Analysis: Iraq still faces hurdles after election

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-02-04 15:55

BAGHDAD -- Last week's peaceful Iraqi elections appear to have been a rousing success -- a major step toward a stable democracy that will hasten the day when US troops can leave.

Related readings:  Iraqi elections avoid violence but complaints loom  Iraqis hold peaceful election; Obama, UN applaud  Voting begins in Iraq under tight security

But Saturday's vote was simply one chapter in a story. Iraq still faces several major hurdles before it becomes clear whether the security gains of the past two years will last.

US President Barack Obama hailed Saturday's peaceful elections as "good news" for US troops and their families, and agreed with the suggestion that a substantial number of those troops could return home within a year.

Predictions about Iraq are risky. The outgoing US ambassador, Ryan Crocker, quips that he defines "long-range forecasts" in Iraq as predictions over the next two weeks.

The euphoria that has surrounded the balloting for ruling councils in most Iraqi provinces is not entirely dissimilar to the optimistic statements that followed national elections in January and December 2005.

At the time, US and Iraqi officials hailed those votes as a severe blow to insurgents -- even though large numbers of Sunnis stayed away from the polls in the first 2005 vote.

A year later, the country was on the brink of civil war. US voters turned out the Republicans from Congress in a dramatic repudiation of the Bush administration's Iraq policies.

Such a dramatic reversal of fortunes is unlikely this time. Iraq's security forces are stronger, the Iraqi people are exhausted by war and extremist groups among both Sunnis and Shiites have been heavily routed.

With little public support for the Iraq mission in the US, Obama is still likely to press ahead with substantial troop withdrawals this year -- even with a level of instability that would be unacceptable in most countries.

Official results from Saturday's balloting have not been released. But projections based on leaks by Iraqi parties show that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's allies were the big winners Saturday at the expense of religious parties, which are widely blamed for plunging the nation into a sectarian bloodbath two years ago.

Furthermore, Sunni Arabs appear to have regained power at the expense of the Kurds in the volatile Mosul area, the last remaining battlefield between US troops and Sunni extremists such as al-Qaida in Iraq.

That could help take the steam out of the Sunni insurgency there if the Sunni community in Mosul feels it has a stake in the local government.

It could also sharpen tensions between the government and the powerful Kurdish parties that are already estranged from the national leadership in Baghdad.

Much will depend on the margin of victory in each of the 14 provinces where voting was held. A low turnout of 51 percent nationwide also signaled a high level of apathy and frustration among Iraqis that politicians had failed them.

If the margins prove narrow, winners and second-place finishers could end up with the same number of council seats. A second-place finisher could strike enough deals with minor parties to control the local government, even without winning the biggest share of the votes.

That could leave the religious parties -- which have close ties to Iraqi security services -- with enough power to recoup in time for national parliamentary elections by the end of the year.

The dealmaking and political conniving that will play out in the coming weeks could threaten what the US wants most out of the election -- stability.

Already, Sunni tribal sheiks in western Iraq are alleging that a government-linked Sunni party stole the election there, a charge that the party denies.

Those sheiks turned against al-Qaida in 2007 and still maintain armed tribal militias, raising fears of armed clashes in the coming weeks. Political groups in the Shiite south are equally divided.

All these issues may be resolved peacefully -- or not. That uncertainty lies behind the US military's concern about a rapid departure of American troops, despite political pressure back home to end the unpopular war as fast as possible.

"Iraq is very much a work in progress, and one that will take at least several more years to achieve any meaningful stability," wrote former Pentagon analyst Anthony Cordesman.