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Japan PM ratings slide to 14% as election looms

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-02-10 11:54

TOKYO - Support for Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has slid to 14 percent, a survey showed on Tuesday, a level which could lead his party to try to replace him ahead of an election that the opposition looks increasingly likely to win.

Japan's Prime Minister Taro Aso makes a special address to the participants of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos January 31, 2009. [Agencies]

The nationwide survey by the Asahi newspaper also showed that 42 percent of voters plan to vote for the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in an election that must be held by October. That compares eith 22 percent who would opt for Aso's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

It is the latest sign that the LDP could be ousted after ruling for most of the past half-century, and is likely to further fray Aso's control over his party as he struggles with an economy falling deeper into recession.

The DPJ has pledged to reduce bureaucratic control over policy, reduce social gaps and adopt a diplomatic stance more independent of Washington if it ends the LDP's rule.

"If it doesn't look like the LDP will win, individual members of parliament ... will increasingly distance themselves from the unpopular Aso and the party will become ungovernable," said Koichi Nakano, a professor at Sophia University in Tokyo.

"I don't think Aso has any means to increase his support. It's a question of basic likeability and trust in his ability, and that has completely evaporated," Nakano said.

Support for Aso's cabinet had been hovering below 20 percent in recent months after a series of policy flip-flops and gaffes. One former minister has already bolted the LDP, although other potential defectors are taking a wait-and-see stance for now.

"It is said that this is a once-in-a-century economic crisis but the LDP is also in a once-in-a-century crisis," the Asahi quoted an LDP lawmaker as saying of the latest support figures.

It is the worst rating for Aso since the LDP tapped him for the post last September in hopes he could lead it to victory in an election for parliament's lower house, and the worst for any Japanese premier since the 9 percent logged by Yoshiro Mori in February 2001, the Asahi said. Mori resigned within months.

PARADE OF PREMIERS

A survey by the conservative Yomiuri newspaper also published on Tuesday showed backing for Aso slipping to 19.7 from 20.4 percent.

Aso has been pondering when to hold an election, possibly in May after the enactment of the state budget for 2009/10, which starts on April 1. Analysts say his sagging support would make that difficult, but that postponing a vote was unlikely to help the LDP.

"The longer an election is postponed, the fewer seats the LDP will win," former financial services minister Yoshimi Watanabe told a news conference on Monday. "The LDP is like the Titanic approaching a huge iceberg that is the election," said Watanabe, who left the party last month over policy differences with Aso.

Aso, 68, is Japan's third prime minister since the last general election in 2005. His two predecessors resigned after seeing their support slide in the face of a political stalemate born of a divided parliament, where an emboldened opposition controls the upper chamber and can delay bills and stymie policies.

With voters weary of the parade of premiers and no obvious ruling party alternative to succeed him, Aso could hang on for months, analysts said.

"If Aso cannot call an election for May, then the LDP will look for someone to replace him," said Yasunori Sone, a political science professor at Tokyo's Keio University.

"In that case, they will bring forward the LDP leadership race to August (from September) and hold an election close to the (September 10) end of lawmakers' terms."

Aso has come under fresh fire this week from the opposition and some in the LDP itself for saying he had opposed a plan to privatise the giant postal system, a pillar of past reforms.

Then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi turned the last election in 2005 into a referendum on the plan, and led the ruling bloc to a huge victory seen as a mandate for his reforms.

The LDP, however, has been drifting away from Koizumi's reforms and the global financial crisis has strengthened the case for a bigger government role in the economy.