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Indonesian leader poised to win 2nd term, polls show

(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-07-08 09:19

JAKARTA: Opinion polls indicate Indonesia's president is on course to win a second 5-year term in Wednesday's election, a sign of widespread public satisfaction with the country's newfound democratic and economic stability.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a retired military general, is hoping for victory in the first round to avoid a runoff vote in September. He has gained popularity with a corruption-free image, financial support for the poor and a pledge to bring a new era of progress to the world's fourth most populous country.

Until recently, Indonesia was wracked by secessionist battles, suicide bombings by Al-Qaida-funded Islamic militants and millions of job losses after the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998 toppled the banking system.

Today, the predominantly Muslim country of 235 million is enjoying a level of harmony its critics had predicted was impossible, with its economy growing at 4 percent amid a severe global downturn.

"Unless there is some dramatic political event, a first-round win (for Yudhoyono) is highly possible," said Sunny Tanuwidjaja, a political researcher at the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Voters know what they will be getting over the next five years with Yudhoyono. Indonesia is headed toward five more years of stability," he said.

Most public opinion polls in Indonesia are funded by political parties, but even the surveys paid for by Yudhoyono's opponents put him 10 percent ahead of the closest rival. Pro-Yudhoyono pollsters give him a 30 percent lead at 70 percent of the vote. Yudhoyono needs 50 percent of cast ballots to win in one round.

Yudhoyono's rivals are Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former president whose father was the first post-colonial leader of Indonesia, and Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

The Indonesian Survey Circle, which has accurately forecast previous elections, predicted in a poll published on Monday that Yudhoyono would win more than 50 percent of the popular vote. It said Megawati and Kalla would garner less than 30 percent.

The pollster said it conducted 2,000 face-to-face interviews in the nationwide survey in mid-June, and that it has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Objections to voter list

Complaints of voter list irregularities by the Megawati and Kalla soured the mood on the eve of elections Tuesday, with Megawati's camp alleging that there were problems with up to 20 million names.

The objections to the voting process are not expected to derail the election.

However, analysts said the complaints could be a tactic aimed at fanning public doubt about the credibility of the process and paving the way for the losers to challenge the result.

"People should not be confused, and this should not make the world view what is happening in our country as abnormal," Yudhoyono told reporters late on Monday, urging his rivals not to act improperly ahead of the vote.

Concern over the voting lists arose first in the run-up to a parliamentary election in April, when duplicate and fictitious names were found on rolls and some voters were not registered.

Tension over the issue was partly defused on Monday when key demands made by Kalla and Megawati were met, including their request to receive copies of the electoral rolls.

Indicating that Yudhoyono's opponents were backing away from earlier suggestions they could ask for the poll to be postponed, Megawati Tuesday urged her supporters to go out and vote.

AP-Reuters