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US hopeful about exit after a quiet July in Iraq

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-07-31 09:32

BAGHDAD: July is on track to be the least deadly month for American troops and one of the quietest for Iraqis since the war started, a decline in violence that has led the US to consider stepping up its withdrawal plans just a month after pulling its combat forces back from Baghdad and other cities.

In this image provided by the People's Mujahedeen Organization of Iran and taken on Tuesday July 28, 2009, Iraqi security forces clash with protesters at the Iranian opposition group's camp northeast of Baghdad. [Agencies]

The optimism was tempered by two bombings that killed 12 civilians to the north and west of Baghdad on Thursday. While such attacks have become a daily fact of life for Iraqis, overall violence levels remain low.

At least 274 Iraqis have been killed in attacks so far in July, according to an Associated Press count. Only two months -- both this year -- have seen fewer Iraqis killed since the AP began tracking war-related fatalities in May 2005. There were 242 deaths in January and 225 deaths in May.

Related readings:  Bombs kill 12 in north and west Iraq  Gates: Some troops may be leaving Iraq early  Gates announces temporary increase in US Army  US to cut Iraq troop force by 12,000  Gates: More US troops could head to Afghanistan

Only seven US troop deaths have been recorded this month, the lowest monthly total since the war started in March 2003, according to an AP tally. In all, at least 4,329 members of the US military have died in the Iraq war.

By contrast, July was the bloodiest month for US forces in the eight-year Afghan war, with at least 41 dead.

The encouraging numbers from Iraq came a month after the Americans turned over responsibility for protecting cities to government forces and withdrew to bases outside urban areas.

A spike in bombings and other attacks that killed about 300 people in the 10 days leading up to the June 30 city withdrawal deadline sparked concern that the move would jeopardize security gains. But that level of violence did not continue into July.

Jim Dobbins, director of national security research at RAND Corp., said the relatively smooth transition was one reason for Wednesday's remarks by Defense Secretary Robert Gates that the US may speed up its withdrawal plans if the trend toward reduced violence continues.

"I think the fact that they were able to (take over the cities) so relatively successfully and the fact that they've continued to try to expand their own autonomy and limit the US role, particularly the visible US role, was a factor," he said. "It demonstrates a sense of self-confidence that the US wants to encourage."

A US Army adviser to the Iraqi military command in Baghdad, Col. Timothy R. Reese, argued in an internal memo that the US should "declare victory and go home" next year, 16 months ahead of schedule.

Reese wrote that the years-long American effort to train, equip and advise Iraqi security forces has reached a point of rapidly diminishing returns, and that Iraqi forces already are good enough to defend the government against the weakened terrorist and insurgent forces that remain.

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