China Perspective
With talk cheap, trade negotiations set to drag past 2011
By Ding Qingfen (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-03-09 09:03
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BEIJING - The Doha round of trade talks is highly unlikely to be concluded this year because the United States lacks the motivation to reach an agreement, according to the former Chinese ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Sun Zhenyu said the prospect of a breakthrough was "not hopeful".
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With the talks having been stalled for more than two years, the heads of the countries at the G20 summit held in Seoul late last year said 2011 offered a window of "opportunity" for an agreement.
Sun, who is also a national committee member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), does not share that optimism.
The Doha talks are aimed at helping developing countries prosper through open and free trade. They started in late 2001 but a wide gulf was evident between developed and developing economies on some key issues, including agriculture.
The talks effectively ground to a halt two years ago.
On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos early this year, two dozen trade ministers agreed to push for an outline deal in the Doha talks and said they would instruct their negotiators to make the necessary compromises to reach such a deal.
Pascal Lamy, the director-general of the WTO, said during the Davos session that he expected some progress could be made before April.
But with the economic recovery following the economic slump being described as slow and with unemployment high in the US, the nation is more interested in "creating jobs and expanding exports than reviving the Doha talks", said Sun.
"No progress can be made in the Doha talks without the participation of the US," he said.
Instead, the US is seeking regional and bilateral trade deals.
The US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement is awaiting final approval from the US Congress.
And during the APEC summit last November, while many participating economies discussed the possibility of a Trans-Pacific Partnership, the US proposed joining as well.
Last December, Yi Xiaozhun, former vice-minister of commerce and China's ambassador to the WTO, called for all of the organization's members to show a greater willingness to conclude the Doha talks this year, despite the difficulties.
According to Zhang Yunling, director of the division of international studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "it is unlikely the talks can be concluded in a short period of time because the priority in the coming few years for major economies, including the US and the EU, and also other major negotiating nations at the talks, is economic recovery."
But the problem is "we have to recognize the significance of the opening-up of global trade and the negative impact of trade protectionism", said Zhang, who is also a national committee member of the CPPCC.
The WTO said 80 percent of the Doha agenda has been completed during the past 10 years.
Brazil's foreign minister, Antonio Patriota, has said the US and other developed countries have been making unreasonable demands during the Doha talks.
But US officials have countered by saying US tariffs are already very low and insisted they had worked hard to inject new realism into the Doha talks. They said the best prospects for the Doha talks in terms of increased trade for poorer countries lay with emerging economies.
"China has done its part at the talks but, if the US cannot make further compromises, the talks will never end," said Sun.
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