Putin wouldn't win without democracy

Some time next week, Vladimir Putin, the charismatic strongman in the driver's seat of the world's largest country for 12 years, will be elected for another term as president. All indications are that the majority of the Russian public will vote him back into the Kremlin.

This comes as unwelcome news for some people in and outside Russia. It is as if the majority-rules mentality, a founding basis of democracy, will somehow fail this country - simply because it will, in this case, see Putin in a third presidential term.

There is basis for this argument. Some may find it hard to accept that new faces have not emerged from the political scene. To paraphrase a line from the 2008 Batman movie The Dark Knight, a political leader either leaves a hero or governs long enough to become the villain. And Putin, it so seems to these people, has become "the villain".

But let's go over the facts again here. Putin, who until 1999 remained little-known even to much of the domestic public, managed to lead the Russian Federation out of the tunnel. He delivered economic growth, secured social stability and advanced Russia's national interests.

The conditions have now changed, of course. Putin himself acknowledges the genuine concerns of the recent protesters and the more structured opposition - who may soon be joined by the other four presidential candidates when the election is over - on issues ranging from corruption to poor governance.

He, too, vows to make considerable changes, and without sacrificing stability.

But this won't result in a revolutionary scenario that some in the West anticipate. It is thanks to Putin - a "dictator" in Western rhetoric - that Russia now has an open political environment with free debate, fresh ideas and fierce competition, the way it never did when he came to power in 1999.

All forms of progressive political reform, a top agenda for many of the protesters, have been done with Putin in office.

The ongoing reforms, in other words, can all be attributed to Putin to a certain extent - if they have not already become part of his legacy.

Those who are busy looking for smart, strong, and charismatic leaders (much like the younger Putin himself) of tomorrow should bear this in mind.

Like Putin said earlier this week, the protesters have not presented any substantial demands other than fair elections. Once the election is over, they may turn increasingly against Putin. But that will effectively challenge the views of the Russian majority, as Putin remains the most popular, influential and tested political leader. Doing so will only undermine their own sustainability.

The social realities of Russia, like elsewhere, are much more complex than outsiders perceive or wish to perceive. The reforms pioneered by Putin have continued to resonate and will deepen in his future years in office. How could these reforms be possible, and how could livelihoods change for the better, with Russia's favorite leader in the opposition?

(China Daily 03/04/2012 page4)