US report sees Asia's global power rising by 2030

Post Arab Spring

In the Middle East, the youth who drove the Arab Spring will give way to a gradually aging population and with new technologies starting to provide the world with other sources of oil and gas, the Middle East economy will need to increasingly diversify, the report said.

"But the Middle East's trajectory will depend on its political landscape.

"On the one hand, if the Islamic Republic maintains power in Iran and is able to develop nuclear weapons, the Middle East will face a highly unstable future. On the other hand, the emergence of moderate, democratic governments or a breakthrough agreement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could have enormously positive consequences."

Islamist terrorism might end by 2030, but terrorism is unlikely to disappear completely because states may use such groups due to a "strong sense of insecurity," the report said.

"With more widespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder, including terrorists, who would focus less on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial disruptions."

Spread of lethal technologies

The next two decades will see a spread of lethal technologies and a "wider spectrum of more accessible instruments of war" especially precision-strike, cyber and bioterror weapons, the report said.

"A cyber arms race is likely to occur" as states seek to defend infrastructure against cyber attacks and to incorporate cyber weapons in their arsenals.

"The degree to which cyber instruments will shape the future of warfare is unclear, however," it said.

War historians believe cyber power may end up similar to early 20th century projections of air power, which played a significant role but did not turn out to be the war-winning capability that some enthusiasts had predicted, the report said.

"The potential opened up by information technology is for future 'do-it-yourself' revolutions conducted by networked social movements that employ information technologies which communicate and collaborate with like-minded individuals," it said.