Abe has chance to show true colors after big win

DEFENSE POLICIES AND HISTORY

Among those changes are an expected reinterpretation of the constitution to end a self-imposed ban on exercising the right of collective self-defence, or aiding an ally under attack, such as if an unpredictable North Korea launched a missile attack on security ally the United States.

Another is a review of defence policies that includes a consideration of acquiring the capability to attack enemy bases when an attack is imminent and no other options exist, and creation of a Marines division to protect remote islands such as those at the core of a heated territorial row with China.

One clue to how Abe intends to proceed on the touchy topic of wartime history will be whether he visits Yasukuni Shrine for war dead, where Japanese leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal are also honoured, on the emotive August 15 anniversary of Japan's defeat in World War Two.

A pilgrimage to the shrine would outrage China, where bitter memories of Japan's past militarism run deep, and upset security ally Washington, which fears a further fraying of Tokyo's already fraught relations with its neighbours.

"The first Abe really wishes to go (to Yasukuni on August 15) but I guess he will refrain from that," Kitaoka said.

But he added: "Mr. Abe is somewhat unpredictable."

Abe moved quickly to improve ties with China and South Korea at the start of his first 2006-2007 term but it is unclear whether he will repeat that success in his second. He has taken a tough stance toward Beijing in particular this time.

Ties with China and Japan have been seriously strained by territorial rows and feuds over wartime history. Concerns are simmering about the risk of an unintended clash near disputed isles in the East China Sea where Japanese and Chinese vessels have been playing a cat-and-mouse game for months.

"In that environment, something could go wrong," said Michael Green, Japan Chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. "That's the Black Swan."

Abe is also unlikely to abandon his long-term goal of revising the 1947 constitution, drafted by U.S. Occupation forces after Japan's defeat and never altered once since.

Conservatives see the constitution as not only restricting Japan's right to defend itself but responsible for eroding traditional mores such as duty to the state.

Abe said on Sunday that more debate was needed to win public understanding on constitutional reform. "I would like to deepen proper debate in a calm and stable situation," he said.

The LDP and smaller parties that also favour revising the constitution failed to obtain a two-thirds majority in the upper house. They have this in the lower chamber, but two-thirds approval of both houses is required before a revision can be taken to a public referendum -- a requirement Abe has said should be eased.

Coalition partner New Komeito is cautious about changing the charter's signature war-renouncing Article 9 which, if taken literally, bans maintenance of armed forces.

Sunday's election also left many wondering about the future of a competitive two-party democracy in Japan. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan, which surged to power in 2009 only to be ousted last year, suffered its worst drubbing since its founding in 1998.