Real estate agents see short-term bull market after Lunar New Year

Hong Kong's major real estate agents expect property prices in the city to rise right after Lunar New Year as buyers' pent-up demand is unleashed.

Hong Kong real estate agency Ricacorp Properties said there's a chance that the market could see a 10 percent surge in 2020.

Willy W.K. Liu, CEO of Ricacorp Properties, agreed, saying the market has hoarded a lot of purchasing power for more than half a year due to the protracted social turbulence, and buyers are expected to get back into the market in February and March, triggering another rally of property prices of as much as 10 percent.

Since the citywide social unrest broke out in June, property prices have declined 5 to 6 percent — an amount that could be offset by a market rally in the first half of 2020, Liu added.

Ricacorp Properties estimated the overall property prices in Hong Kong will rise 3 to 5 percent by the end of this year.

Liu said he believes that in addition to the easing of the civil unrest in the city, the property market in the coming year will also get a boost by the phase-one Sino-US trade deal and an expected interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.

Echoing Liu's remarks, Midland Realty CEO Sammy Po also said he believes a bull market is in the cards for Hong Kong, and his company expects that property prices will rise by 5 percent next year.

As the social turmoil settles, the accumulated purchasing power in the market may materialize after Lunar New Year, said Po, adding that the property market will return to an upward trajectory following the uptick. The four-day Lunar Year begins on Jan 25.

Po said that in January and February, property prices will fall slightly by 1 percent, but the higher mortgage guaranteed by the SAR government will continue to benefit the property market.

Despite the impact of the Sino-US trade tension and an incessant local unrest, property prices fell only 5.8 percent in the second half of the year, reflecting a healthy status of the overall market, without any necessity for price-cut promotions, according to a Midland analysis.

The agency anticipates property prices will rise by 3 percent this year — a similar increase to last year's.

For next year, property prices are expected to increase by about 5 percent, according to Midland Realty's Po, who added that among the secondary market, buyers will particularly favor units priced between HK$6 million ($640,000) to HK$10 million.