Surge in US deaths forecast as curbs ease

Virus seen claiming over 134,000 lives by early August under revised modeling

COVID-19 may kill more than 134,000 people in the United States by early August, revised modeling from the University of Washington indicated on Monday.

The model, from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or the IHME, projected 134,475 deaths by August 4, with a range of 95,092 to 242,890.

"These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics," the IHME said.

The revised projections reflect rising mobility in most US states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, indicating that growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus, according to the IHME.

"In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing," said IHME Director Christopher Murray.

"We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer," he said.

The updated modeling approach indicates that the United States appears to be in a prolonged epidemic peak, averaging near or over 2,000 predicted deaths a day for the last few weeks, according to the IHME.

A New York Times report said the number of daily death from the virus in the US will reach about 3,000 on June 1, nearly double the current level of about 1,750, with 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The projections are based on modeling from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to internal documents the newspaper said it obtained.

There were more than 1.18 million infections in the US－or nearly one-third of the global total－according to data from Johns Hopkins University, and more than 68,900 people in the country have died of the virus.

Warning over drug

In a separate development, the first doctor in the US to administer remdesivir－a drug that has shown early promise as a treatment for COVID-19－warned on Monday that it should be used "carefully and wisely".

"It appears that we do have an agent in our armamentarium against COVID (-19), but we have to use it very wisely," said George Diaz, section chief of infectious diseases at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington.

"This should not be used as a crutch to－for patients to say, well－or people to say, 'I can now do whatever I want because we have a treatments.'" Diaz said on Monday.

The doctor said that any medication for treatment of an infection, whether it be to treat bacteria or viruses, should be used appropriately, because widespread inappropriate use of any medicine can result in resistance to that particular medication.

US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that remdesivir has been authorized by regulators for emergency use against the virus. On Sunday, Trump said the US government is putting its "full power and might" behind the drug.

Undetected case

Meanwhile, the Mayor of Belleville in Michigan, Michael Melham, said he has tested positive for coronavirus antibodies, adding that he believes he was sick with the virus in November－more than a month before doctors in China first reported cases of the new disease.

Melham said he was sick toward the end of November and suffered from chills, hallucinations and a "skyrocketing temperature" after he left a League of Municipalities Conference in Atlantic City.

Melham said he later suspected he had contracted the coronavirus in November but dismissed the notion because the earliest cases in the US weren't reported until January. His November illness is what prompted Melham to ask his doctor for the blood test. He got the results on Wednesday. Melham believes he could potentially be an early, undetected case of the virus.

Xinhua and agencies contributed to this story.