US-China ties in 2026: scholars see window for stability amid fragility

"We're in a better place than I thought we would be at the end of 2025," said David Kang, Maria Crutcher professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, during a virtual seminar on the prospects for US-China relations in 2026.

The conversation, organized by the Institute for China-America Studies, took place on Jan 15 against the backdrop of recent bilateral developments, including the Trump administration's National Security Strategy released in December, which placed heavy emphasis on economic engagement in Asia and avoided framing China as an existential threat. That document followed a year of significant activity, notably five rounds of trade negotiations and a summit in Busan, South Korea, that produced a tariff truce.

Robert Sutter, professor of practice in international affairs at George Washington University's Elliott School, noted that US President Donald Trump has never viewed China as a threat, "very different than" other Washington politicians. He cautioned, however, that if Trump moves to sharply increase the defense budget, "that will get China's attention and will make it more difficult, it seems to me, to move ahead with China."

Sutter pointed out that Trump's approach to China is highly transactional, using access to the American market as leverage to force Asian countries into bilateral agreements more favorable to the United States.

Kang took a more cautious view of America's trajectory in Asia.

"My view tends to be a little bit more pessimistic about what happened in 2025. And for the US, particularly, I think the trend is still negative in Asia. And I don't think these deals are positive at all," Kang said. He described allies' public behavior toward Trump, such as South Korea presenting a gold crown replica from the Silla dynasty, as performative flattery, while privately those countries work to deepen regional networks as a hedge against US policy volatility.

Taiwan emerged as a central point of debate. The US approved $11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan in late 2025, the largest single package to date, while the new National Security Strategy reaffirmed longstanding policy without directly referencing the one-China principle.

Kang suggested Trump's lack of ideological attachment to Taiwan may reduce friction compared with previous approaches. "I don't think Taiwan matters to him at all the way that it matters to the establishment," he said.

Zhu Zhiqun, professor of political science and international relations at Bucknell University, expressed concern that "to arm Taiwan" is a "problematic approach".

Zhu described the present relationship as fragile despite the current calm.

"The current state is a kind of a negative equilibrium, not shaped by common interests or mutual love, really shaped by the two countries' capacity to harm each other, such as through tariffs, high tech control, rare earth and soybeans … So the relationship is fragile and remains fundamentally unstable," he said.

Liu Yawei, senior advisor on China at the Carter Center, was the most optimistic about the coming year.

"If the Taiwan issue can be stabilized, this relationship between the US and China can also be stabilized, which will be a blessing not just for the two countries but for the whole world," he concluded.

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com