Cost to delink with China will be more than the US can bear

Amid the general election and an ongoing pandemic, a group of US’ Republican strategists have been proposing a drastic political move to enhance President Trump’s chance of reelection, which is to completely delink with China. This can only be regarded as a Republican’s campaign gimmick with little possibility of success in real life.

History has already proven that the cost to isolate China, the world’s most populous nation of 1.4 billion, with a written history of 5,000 years, would be beyond the ability of any major country.

In 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was founded, the war-ridden country was poor and faced seemingly insurmountable challenges. The Truman administration refused to recognize the newly founded PRC, and ignored the repeated warnings from China’s then-premiere when it decided to cross the thirty-eighth parallel in its involvement in the Korean Civil War, forcing China to enter the war in response to the threat US military actions posed to its national security.

Truman and his military commander-in-chief in the region, MacArthur, never imagined that China would dare to confront the unprecedented military might the US possessed at that time. What’s more, the poorly armed Chinese volunteers were able to push the US-led "United Nations Command" from near its border all the way back to the thirty-eighth parallel.

This military victory against all the odds was a big boost for China’s military power in the world and a humiliating response to US’ arrogance at the same time. Powerful as it was, the US was forced to negotiate and sign the ceasefire with Chinese opponents whom they despised.

From 1949 to 1972, the US and China remained completely delinked for 23 years. There were no political, cultural or economic contacts between the two countries what so ever. No Chinese products worth more than 25 cents were allowed to enter the US and no US products worth more than twenty-five cents were allowed to be exported to China. The huge Chinese market, which US corporations enjoyed access to, was completely lost.

It took Nixon, a Cold War warrior, to realize the stupidity of US foreign policy in isolating itself from the most populous nation in the world. In February 1972, Nixon became the first US president to visit China, a country with which it had no diplomatic relation at the time. The first words he uttered when he met Chairman Mao in the latter’s study were: “Mr. Chairman, you have changed the world.”

Nixon’s visit ushered in a new era for Sino-US relations and for the entire world. In the last four decades the scale of educational exchanges, foreign trade, cultural exchanges between the two nations went through the ceilings, beyond the wildest expectations of Nixon or Kissinger, benefitting both Chinese and American people to a great extent.

In the meanwhile, China became the second-largest economy in the world and rightly so considering its large and well educated population. China’s manufacturing capacity today is bigger than that of US, Japan and Germany combined. With 1.4 billion people, Chinese population is bigger than that US, Japan, Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western Europe combined, making it the biggest market in the world ever.

Anybody in their right mind will not be able to imagine that US will delink itself from China and Chinese market. It would be suicidal to an extent. Who’s going to buy and consume the 70 million tons of soybean beans American farmers export each year? Who’s going to buy the electronic chips US producers have been exporting to China each year worth several hundred billions of dollars? If the Chinese students stopped coming to attend the US universities and colleges, hundreds and billions of tuition money, would be lost. Who’s going to fill the fiscal shortfalls left by the absence of Chinese students? If the Chinese tourists stop coming to the US and spending hundred and billions in the US market, it will leave big hole in the US economy nobody else in the world will be able to fill.

There’s no doubt that there are some extremist politicians who are eager to hurt China through delinking with China. But in today’s world, any attempts to hurt China will hurt the US at the same time. America’s future will not be decided by these few extremist politicians. American public will not allow the so-called delink to take place once they understand the implication for their lives.

The author is a professor of political science at Warren Wilson College. The opinions expressed here are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of China Daily and China Daily website.

If you have a specific expertise and would like to contribute to China Daily, please contact us at opinion@chinadaily.com.cn , and comment@chinadaily.com.cn