Experts: Next US president should shift China policy

Little interest shown

Other countries have shown little interest in participating in a US-led decoupling strategy, given China's growing global economic and financial role. They have even less of an appetite for joining a US-led effort to promote regime change in China, according to Lardy.

Even a narrower US decoupling in technology is likely to be a high-cost strategy for the United States. For example, shutting US semiconductor companies out of the China market will lead to the loss of 124,000 US jobs, he said.

Lardy proposed that the new president recognize that the "trade war" has failed and it should avoid weaponizing trade policy, such as through tariffs on Chinese imports, because the costs to the US will likely exceed anticipated benefits.

Chad P. Bown, another senior fellow with the Peterson institute, proposed that Washington "unilaterally drop the artificial targets of purchase commitments" in the US-China phase one agreement, "as these do not encourage trade liberalization or market reform".

Bown, who runs a US-China phase one tracker, said he thinks that the incentives for China to fulfill its commitments relate to increased purchases by State-owned enterprises, not China's private sector. He said the targets also encourage China to divert trade from US allies, undermining multilateral cooperation.

Other researchers, like Jason Furman, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson institute and a former White House top economic adviser, highlighted international cooperation on climate change as a priority for the next administration.

Last week, the Brookings Institution also said that whoever wins the election will be challenged by an ongoing pandemic and the ensuing economic and social devastation, but will face opportunities, too, including the chance to make "highly consequential and hopefully constructive" choices on China, international trade and post-COVID-19 recovery.