Tourism put back 3 decades, report says

The global tourism industry has suffered its worst year on record, with international arrivals dropping by 72 percent over the first 10 months of 2020 and falling back to 1990 levels, largely because of restrictions on movement, low consumer confidence and the global struggle to contain COVID-19.

According to the latest data from the World Tourism Organization, or UNWTO, destinations welcomed 900 million fewer international tourists between January and October, compared to the same period of 2019. This translates into a loss of $935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009, during the global economic crisis.

Zurab Pololikashvili, UNWTO secretary-general, said: "Even as the news of a vaccine boosts traveler confidence, there is still a long road to recovery. We thus need to step up our efforts to safely open borders while supporting tourism jobs and businesses. It is ever clearer that tourism is one of the most affected sectors by this unprecedented crisis."

The UNWTO estimates that based on current evidence, international arrivals will decline by 70 percent to 75 percent for the whole of 2020, meaning global tourism will have returned to the levels of 30 years ago, with 1 billion fewer arrivals, and a loss of some $1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This massive drop could result in an economic loss of $2 trillion in world GDP.

Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic and the one with the highest level of travel restrictions to date, saw an 82 percent decrease in arrivals in the first 10 months of 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73 percent decline, while Africa saw a 69 percent drop. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68 percent.

Short-lived recovery

In September and October, Europe recorded smaller decreases, of 72 percent and 76 percent respectively, compared to other world regions, following the slight but short-lived recovery in the peak summer months of July and August.

The resurgence of the virus across the region has led to the reintroduction of some forms of travel restrictions. However, Europe is the region in which more destinations (91 percent as of Nov 1) have eased such restrictions, mainly among Schengen Area member states.

At the other end of the spectrum, Asia and the Pacific continued to record declines of nearly 100 percent in September and October.

The Americas have seen a gradual improvement since June, with comparatively lower decreases in international arrivals through October. This reflects the reopening of many destinations in the region, including small island developing states in the Caribbean.

Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, according to the UNWTO. However, some large markets, such as the United States, Germany and France, have shown some signs of recovery in the recent months. Demand for domestic tourism continues to grow in some markets, including China and Russia.

The start of vaccinations is expected to gradually increase consumer confidence.

While a rebound in international tourism is expected by the second half of 2021, the UNWTO expects a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take between two-and-a-half and four years.